According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, from May 6 to 9, the average price of domestic 1,4-butanediol remained at 7,950 RMB/ton, down 0.11% from the previous month and 11.81% from the previous year. The industry's capacity utilization rate increased, the supply-side support weakened, and the cautious bearish sentiment of the industry increased. However, the overall downstream demand followed up well, and the supplier stabilized the market under cost pressure, and the 1,4-butanediol market was at a stalemate.
On the supply side, the Black Cat, Tunhe Phase III, and Yanchang units were restarted and increased in volume, and Hualu's new capacity was put into production and products were put into production. In addition, the Great Wall Energy and Sichuan Yongying units were restarted, the industry's capacity utilization rate increased, and the supply-side support gradually weakened, aggravating the cautious wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The supply side of 1,4-butanediol was affected by negative factors.
Statistics of equipment operation status of some manufacturers:
|
Area |
Device dynamics |
|
Shaanxi Shaanxi Chemical |
The first phase of the 30,000 tons/year device was stopped in early August 2024, and the second phase of the 100,000 tons/year device was stopped on February 22, 2025, and the restart time is not determined. |
|
Shaanxi Guorong |
The 60,000 tons/year BDO device was stopped in mid-April 2024, and the restart time is uncertain |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
The third phase of the equipment is stopped, the first phase of the equipment is operated normally; the second phase of the equipment is stopped in early April 2025 |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
The first phase 60,000 tons and the second phase 7+70,000 tons are operating relatively stably. The entire factory will be inspected on May 16, with a preparatory period of one month. After the maintenance, the temporary plan is to restart the second phase |
|
Dalian Hengli |
The first 300,000 tons/year BDO device currently has a load of around 70%. The second set of 300,000 tons/year installations will be parked nearby on March 11 |
|
Henan Energy Chemical Industry |
The factory was suspended for major inspection on July 10, and the restart time was not determined |
|
Henan Kaixiang |
All 110,000 tons of BDO devices were stopped on February 5, and the restart time was not determined |
|
Inner Mongolia Huaheng |
Two sets of devices operate |
|
Sinopec Great Wall Energy |
Major inspection on March 17, restarted on April 30, and products are expected to be released after May 10 |
Cost side, raw material calcium carbide: After the May Day holiday, the domestic calcium carbide market entered a stable wait-and-see state, and the inventory of production enterprises was low. At present, the arrival tension in the eastern region of the market has intensified. The domestic methanol market is weak and volatile. As of 15:00 on the afternoon of May 9, the domestic methanol Taicang price was 2402 RMB/ton. The prices of raw materials calcium carbide and methanol are weak, and the cost side of 1,4-butanediol is affected by negative factors.
On the demand side, the load of downstream industries PTMEG and PBAT industries has increased, and the load of PBT, PU slurry and other industries has declined, and the increase in raw material consumption has not been obvious. In addition, many downstream industries are in a loss-making state, and there is a bargaining mood for high-priced raw materials. The demand side of 1,4-butanediol is affected by negative factors.
Forecast for the future market, some maintenance devices will be restarted and the load will be increased, and the support on the supply side will be weakened. The overall downstream operating load has increased, and the raw material consumption has increased. Analysts of 1,4-butanediol of SunSirs predict that the domestic 1,4-butanediol market will be mainly consolidated and wait-and-see.
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