According to SunSirs commodity market analysis system, from May 6 to 9, the average domestic BDO price remained at 7,950 RMB/ton, down 0.11% month-on-month and 11.81% year-on-year. The industry's capacity utilization rate has increased, favorable support on the supply side has weakened, and industry cautious bearish sentiment has increased. However, overall downstream demand is still acceptable, and the supply side has stabilized its market under cost pressure, and the 1,4-butanediol market focus is running stalemate. In the supply side , the Heimao, Tunhe Phase III, and extended devices restarted and increased volume, Hualu's new production capacity put into production products, and the restart of Great Wall Energy and Sichuan Yongying devices has increased, and the supply-side support has gradually weakened, which has aggravated the cautious wait-and-see mood within the market. The supply side of 1,4-butanediol is affected by negative factors.
Statistics of equipment operation status of some manufacturers:
|
Area |
Device dynamics |
|
Shaanxi Shaan Chemical |
The first phase of the 30,000 tons/year device was stopped in early August 2024, and the second phase of the 100,000 tons/year device was stopped on February 22, 2025, and the restart time is not determined. |
|
Shaanxi Guorong |
The 60,000 tons/year BDO device was stopped in mid-April 2024, and the restart time is uncertain |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
The third phase of the equipment is stopped, the first phase of the equipment is operated normally; the second phase of the equipment is stopped in early April 2025 |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
The first phase 60,000 tons and the second phase 7+70,000 tons are operating relatively stably. The entire factory will be inspected on May 16, with a preparatory period of one month. After the maintenance, the temporary plan is to restart the second phase |
|
Dalian Hengli |
The first 300,000 tons/year BDO device currently has a load of around 70%. The second set of 300,000 tons/year installations will be parked nearby on March 11 |
|
Henan Energy Chemical Industry |
The factory was suspended for major inspection on July 10, and the restart time was not determined |
|
Henan Kaixiang |
All 110,000 tons of BDO devices were stopped on February 5, and the restart time was not determined |
|
Inner Mongolia Huaheng |
Two sets of devices operate |
|
Sinopec Great Wall Energy |
Major inspection on March 17, restarted on April 30, and products are expected to be released after May 10 |
Cost side , raw material calcium carbide: After May Day, the domestic calcium carbide market has entered a stable wait-and-see state, and the inventory of production enterprises is low. At present, the tight arrivals in the eastern part of the market are intensifying. The domestic methanol market is weak and fluctuating. As of 15:00 pm on May 9, the domestic methanol taxi price was 2,402 RMB/ton. The prices of raw materials calcium carbide and methanol are relatively weak, and the cost of 1,4-butanediol is relatively negative.
On the demand side , the load of PTMEG and PBAT industries in downstream industries has increased, while the load of PBT and PU slurries has declined, which has not increased significantly in the digestion of raw materials. Moreover, many downstream industries are in a loss-making state and there is a bargaining sentiment for high-priced raw materials. 1,4-Butanediol demand is negative.
In the future market forecast , some maintenance devices will be reopened and negative operation will be lifted, and the supply side support will be weakened. The overall downstream start-up load has increased, and the amount of raw materials has increased. 1,4-Butanediol analysts from the Business Society predict that the domestic 1,4-butanediol market will be mainly composed of wait-and-see.
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