According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the market for locally refined petroleum coke in April first fell and then rose, with prices falling overall. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 2,262.50 RMB/ton on April 30th and 2,387.50 RMB/ton on April 1st, with a monthly decline of 5.24%.

Cost wise: The international oil price trend declined in April. The new US tariff policy may lead to increased risks of trade disputes, weakened global economic and demand prospects, and market concerns; OPEC+ is considering further increasing production in June, and Kazakhstan has stated that it may be difficult to strictly comply with the compensatory production reduction plan; The easing of the geopolitical situation has put pressure on the oil market.

Supply side: In April, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries was average, and downstream purchases were mainly for essential needs. Market entry was cautious, and refinery shipments were hindered. In addition, at the end of the month, the benchmark price for pre baked anodes purchased by a certain aluminum plant in Shandong in May decreased compared to April, which limited support for petroleum coke prices and led to an overall decline in petroleum coke prices. In April, the trading of petroleum coke at the port was average, with high sulfur petroleum coke concentrated at the port. The port inventory was sufficient, and downstream enterprises maintained essential procurement.

Demand side: In April, the overall supply side of the metal silicon market showed weak performance, with some silicon companies experiencing poor shipments and overall pressure on the supply side. In some regions, the operating rate was lowered, production enthusiasm weakened, and the supply side provided insufficient support to the market. Downstream users of metallic silicon are showing cautious demand, with transaction negotiations at the low end and slow demand transmission. The support provided by the demand side for metallic silicon is also loose. The demand for petroleum coke market in the silicon industry still exists.

The market for medium sulfur calcined coke declined in April, mainly due to the impact of the decline in petroleum coke prices. The price of calcined coke also fell, and coupled with limited downstream demand, calcined coke remained on the sidelines.

The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained relatively stable in April, with 2.8 million tons of newly built capacity in Hebei and Guangxi about to be put into use, but still leaving a significant gap. Theoretically, starting from May, there will be a monthly gap of 100,000 tons. Domestic demand is relatively strong, providing some support for aluminum prices; However, under the pressure of global trade risks, the uncertainty of aluminum demand has increased. There is an expectation of a transition from shortage to surplus in aluminum supply and demand throughout the year. Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.

Currently, the benchmark price for pre baked anodes purchased by a certain aluminum plant in Shandong Province has declined in May. In addition, the downstream demand for petroleum coke is limited, resulting in light market transactions. It is expected that the recent consolidation of the petroleum coke market will be the main trend.

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