After the May 1 holiday, domestic imports of mineral prices increased again. The decrease was due to increased purchase demand from steel mills, and the replacement was due to continued decline in port stocks, which was caused by two major positive factors. However, judging from the price trend chart at the end of the past two months, the overall fluctuation range of spot prices of imported mines is still between 640-680 yuan / wet ton, which is in line with market expectations. From the perspective of the futures market, its price has become a full rally: it can only be because the main contract is changed at the end of March, the futures price has fallen sharply, and then the growth trend has resumed due to the basis; It is expected that the market demand will be better, and the enthusiasm for buying slender illnesses will drive futures prices to continue to rise.

According to SunSirs price data, as of May 7, the average price of 62% PB powder port in Australia was 660.89 yuan / wet ton, Brazil ’s 63.5% coarse powder price was 721.12 yuan / wet ton, and 62% printing powder price was 606.50. Yuan / wet ton, the prices rose by 0.93%, 4.47% and 0.53% respectively from the beginning of the previous 5 months, but respectively decreased by 2.83%, increased by 3.37% and decreased by 6.48%. In addition, according to the SunSirs basis map, from 2020-03-01 to 2020-05-07, the main basis of iron ore mutation was 85.17, mutation was -3.78, roughly 40.50, and May 7 was 43.89, It shows that the basis is basically returning to the mean, but it is still possible to shrink.

And from the perspective of price level, the price of Brazilian coarse powder ore has been rising all the way in early April, with a high trend in the middle and a short-term trend in the second half. Mainly due to the impact of global public health incidents, Brazil's gradual long-distance delivery of goods has uncertainties, and the government blockade has a relatively large impact, which has caused its mineral prices to remain high. The trigger is due to the fact that high-quality mines are more cost-effective in response to changes in mine prices, and their demand is greater. The data shows that until April 30, the Brazilian mine port inventory were at 2645.67, setting a new low level since October 2018.

From the perspective of inventory: As of April 30, the inventory of 45 ports in the country was at 11398.03 hours, a week-on-week decline in revenue of 187.33, a new low since 2017, and a gradual decline of 15.11%. The average daily sparse port volume is 318.43. The average shows that the improvement in market demand since May has pushed up the price increase.

From the perspective of demand: As of April 30, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills in the country was 80.95%, a weekly increase of 0.46%, a decrease of 2.44%; blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 81.68%, a weekly increase of 1.09%, over the same period Decreased by 2.28%; the average daily amount of molten iron was 228.41 hours, with a weekly increase of 3.05 in length, and a frequency of 6.37 drops each time. The data shows that the steel mill operating rate and capacity utilization rate continue to increase, and have rebounded for 10 weeks and 9 weeks, respectively, and have basically returned to the level of gold, silver and silver in 2019. Secondly, the profitability of steel mills has also rebounded to 84.21%, rising continuously for 8 weeks and continuing to stay at a normally high level. It can be seen that the iron and steel plant's demand for iron ore raw material purchases has increased, and the production enthusiasm will also increase when the profit margin continues to rise, and it is expected that it will continue to support the rising price of ore in the future.

In the meantime, as of May 7, the current steel mills ’average inventory of imported mines was 23 days, a continuous decrease of 7 cycles; and the total inventory of imported mine sinter powder also replaced 1625.17 times, a significant decrease of 440,800 tons from the previous cycle, but There has been a recovery; the average total inventory of imported mines has decreased by 25.72 hours, setting a new low level since 17 consecutive cycles. So it shows that after the current start of recovery, the consumption of ore inventories of steel mills has accelerated, and the demand for future purchases continues to rise.

Therefore, on the surface of demand, steel mills driven by profits have increased their production enthusiasm and the demand for procurement has picked up.

From the perspective of futures: The main iron ore contract showed a significant growth in early May, and reached a new high since the contract was changed in April. However, referring to the previous market, this price level is low. Continued on the night of May 7, the main iron ore contract of the Dashang Institute closed at 633.5 yuan / dry ton, up 2.67%. Among them, the K-line has crossed all long-term moving averages on the 5th; the stochastic indicator KDJ diverges upwards on the third line, and the J-line trend is high; the long-term indicator MACD, after the fast line uploads the slow line, diverges into a positive range, and the amount can be positive for 15 consecutive days. And gradually increase. Therefore, there is room for growth in the future.

To sum up, SunSirs analyst Hangsheng He believes that the fundamentals of the domestic domestic mineral market currently present a "supply less than demand" pattern, and the short-term increase in demand and the port to inventory formation form a mismatch in price increases. In addition, according to the business community, the current scrap prices have begun to rise sharply (up to 200 yuan / ton since mid-April), which may be driven by the rise in steel prices, but mainly due to the accelerated recovery rate of electric furnace steel mills. As a result of the rebound in scrap purchases, third, the current futures market prices continue to rise, or drive spot traders to "hold up the goods, but regret the accumulation of stocks" operation, then the short-term will also push up the price of minerals. . Finally, the downstream steel prices have begun to rebound in an all-round way. Although the transaction market has shown a slight improvement, the delayed demand is expected to begin to materialize, and then the industrial chain-linked upward trend will also push up the mineral prices. Therefore, it is expected that the upward trend will continue in early May, with spot prices ranging from 660-690 yuan / wet ton and futures 630-650 yuan / dry ton. In the middle of the year, it will be mainly operated firmly, and in the second half of the year, it will be seen whether the specific demand continues and the upward trend of steel prices is linked.

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