In April, almost all the domestic black market showed a weak downward trend of "first rise and then fall". Among them, the coking coal of raw fuels dropped the most, and hit a new low level in three years. The volatility of the iron ore spot market is significantly smaller than that of the futures market, and prices are slightly stronger. In addition, the overall finished product market is still in an upward trend, and the upward trend brought by the improvement in demand is exerting force.
Therefore, although the steel market supported by raw material prices, although there are downtrends due to high inventories and the hollow state, the policy and economic stimulus expects that the upward momentum brought by the improved transaction is still sufficient. Data show that as of April 24, the profit rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.21%, a new high in two months, and basically returned to the level before the epidemic. However, on the whole, the benefits of steel enterprises only slightly increased in the first quarter of 2020, and the industry's leverage ratio remained high.
According to the China Steel Association, in the first quarter of this year, member steel companies achieved a profit of 23.284 billion yuan and a sales profit rate of 2.77%. They are still at a low level in all industrial industries, and 19% of companies have losses, although the loss is in Decrease, but the loss is still very large. At the same time, the industry's financial expenses are high, the current ratio and quick ratio are very low, and the depreciation level of fixed assets is at the lower limit. It can be seen that, under the industry fundamental level in April, steel mills' profit in May may still be mainly thin, and some steel mills may be on the edge of the profit and loss line.
According to the price rise and fall of the iron ore industry chain detected by SunSirs: In April, the prices of raw iron ore and intermediate steel billet both remained firm and steady and rose slightly. The increase was half of the raw materials, and the pipe fell 4.39%, making it the most obsessed product in the market. Stainless steel plate has become a star product because the price of raw material nickel has risen 8.43%.
Negative phenomena such as high production enthusiasm, slow destocking rate, large volume of transactions, low recovery in capacity costs, liquidity restrictions, etc. have also suppressed steel prices, constrained the upward trend, and bearish mentality, making the futures market also surging down.
As of the close of trading on the 29th, the main coking coal contract fell 0.48% to 1039.5, the main coke contract fell 0.15% to 1657, the main iron ore contract fell 0.58% to 595.5; the main hot-rolled coil contract rose 0.22% to 3159, rebar The main contract fell 0.03% to 3302. On the whole, the ups and downs are not large, but the intra-day volatility range has expanded, and the long and short games have become more intense.
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Variety 1, the iron ore market fluctuated within a narrow range, and the price decline was limited.
In terms of price, according to the price data of the trading company, as of April 29, the average price of 62% PB powder ore port car plates in Australia was 655.33 yuan / wet ton, and the price of 63.5% coarse powder in Brazil was 719.75 yuan / wet ton, 62% printed. The price of powder was RMB 603.33 / wet ton, up 1.34%, 4.27% and 0.19% respectively from the beginning of April.
Turnover: [Port Spot] The cumulative turnover of the main port iron ore mines nationwide was 1.72 million tons, up 24.5% from the previous month; the average daily turnover last week was 1.696 million tons, and the average daily turnover last month was 1.402 million tons. 【Forward Spot】 Foreign spot transactions totaled 1.485 million tons, up 61.4% month-on-month, with an average daily transaction of 1.334 million tons last week and an average daily transaction of 749,000 tons last month.
Futures: The main contract showed a slight rise in April as a whole, and the daily K-line is generally a small cross star, showing that narrow fluctuations are the main reason. The 5-day moving average only crosses the 10-day moving average, and the 20-day moving line is the pressure line; the KDJ stochastic indicator presents a three-line divergence situation, and there is no crossover in the short term; the MACD indicator fast and slow lines coincide in parallel and are in the negative range, the amount can be less; There is still room for futures prices to fall.
On the whole, the futures decline trend, and the spot fundamentals show a tight balance between supply and demand, supporting spot mineral prices, so futures have limited room for decline. The short-term pressure level is expected to be 585 yuan / dry ton (futures), and the spot price is 645 yuan / wet ton (62% PB).
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Variety 2. The volume of hot rolled coils is expected to increase, and prices may stabilize.
In terms of prices, according to the price data of the trading company, as of April 29, the average price of 5.5 * 1500 * C hot rolled coils in Shanghai Q235B was 3300 yuan / ton, up 0.76% from the beginning of April. By region, Jiangsu Shagang 3290 yuan / ton, Boxing China Railway 3320 yuan / ton, Shenyang Angang 3300 yuan / ton, hot coil prices rose 10 yuan / ton, Shanghai Angang 3280 yuan / ton, Lecong Liugang 3300 yuan / Tons, Tangshan Tangsteel 3270 yuan / ton, Wuhan Wuhan Iron and Steel 3340 yuan / ton and so on have remained unchanged.
Transaction: At present, transactions in the market are general, but due to the introduction of the high-speed recovery charging policy, terminal merchants in many places have begun to fill the demand for warehouses, and market inquiries have increased significantly. However, due to the limitation of funds and the rise of futures, traders have raised their prices, and the terminal price has been reduced, resulting in no significant volume in transactions, and the majority of zero-order transactions.
Futures: The hot-rolled main contract in April was mainly a small rise, and the rise in the first half of the month was fast and fierce, but the second half of the month fell slowly, and fell more than the rise, and there were more short green bars. From a technical point of view, the three moving averages on the 5th, 10th, and 20th continue to interlace densely, and there is a trend of four lines in one; in addition, the KDJ random indicator diverges on the third line, but the J line has a bottoming rebound trend, subsequent or cash fork; MACD indicator In the middle, the speed is shrinking upwards, or there is a dead fork, and the volume can be reduced; so it is expected that there is room for a downward trend in the short term.
On the whole, futures prices may continue to decline, but the spot market transaction volume is expected to increase, supporting the spot, so it is expected that the short-term fluctuations in the future market will be mainly within a narrow range.
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Variety 3, the rebar market infrastructure support demand, prices fluctuate.
In terms of prices, according to SunSirs price data, as of April 29, the average market price of 16mm tertiary rebar in Shanghai was 3414 yuan / ton, up 0.77% from April. Among them, the market prices generally stabilized in the morning, but Central China and North China generally fell by 10 yuan; the South China market dropped by 10 yuan / ton, and the East China market continued to stabilize.
In terms of transactions: 260,000 tons were traded on the 29th, an increase of 20,300 tons from the previous day, and hit a new high of 2 weeks. On the one hand, due to increased demand for restocking during the May Day holiday, on the other hand, it is due to high-speed recovery charges, freight rates have increased again, and merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing has increased. However, on the other hand, the current market transactions are mostly low-priced resources, and the thread market under high inventory items, the destocking rate is slowed down by the decline in capital and the futures market, coupled with the continued recovery of steel mill output, the market is expected to continue to operate weakly.
Futures: The main contract rose mainly in April, and the rise was fast and fierce in the first half of the month, but it fell slowly in the second half of the month, and fell more than the rise, and there were more short green bars. From a technical point of view, on the 5th, the 10-day and 20-day moving averages were continuously broken down, and the 30-day high pressure was down; the KDJ stochastic indicator diverged on the third line, but the J line has bottomed out, and the follow-up or cash fork; in the MACD indicator, the fast line is down After crossing the slow line, they alternately run, and the volume can shrink to almost 0; so it is expected that there is still room for decline in the short term.
On the whole, the futures are currently in a downtrend, and the demand for spot replenishment is likely to be supported. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term market outlook will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range.
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In summary, SunSirs analyst Hangsheng He believes that the overall steel market in April was "not in peak season", and steel prices "rised first and then fell," and returned to the beginning of the month at the end of the month . Technical analysis of the futures market, the moving average is dead, the market is sluggish, and the future is "empty but insufficient"; the fundamental analysis of the spot market is supported and in demand, and the future is "more intentions and too much"; therefore, overall, it is expected that In early May, the black line or the whole was dominated by small declines, and then the shock rose slightly in the middle.
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