Price trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the price of stainless steel has slightly decreased this week. As of September 13th, the daily average price of spot 304/2B stainless steel flat plate 1.0 * 1219 * 2438 (tolerance 0.91) was quoted at 12,435.71 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.25% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 10.95%.

According to the price difference analysis tool of SunSirs, the prices of nickel and stainless steel were basically similar, and the overall price has been relatively stable recently.

Analysis review

This week's stainless steel inventory totaled 102.43 tons, a decrease of 3.5% compared to last week, with both cold and hot rolled inventories falling.

From an upstream perspective, in terms of nickel mines, the weather in Indonesia has improved recently, raising concerns about the negative risks brought by loose nickel mine supply in Indonesia. In terms of nickel iron, downstream steel mills have suffered increasing losses, and negative feedback has put pressure on the price of nickel iron. The latest purchase price of high nickel iron at a special steel plant in East China was 990 yuan/nickel (including tax upon arrival), with a transaction volume of 2,000 tons for spot trading.

From the supply side, the estimated crude steel production of 43 domestic stainless steel plants in August 2024 was 3.3513 million tons, an increase of 43,100 tons month on month, an increase of 1.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.95%; The 300 series had 1.6865 million tons, an increase of 50,600 tons month on month, with a growth rate of 3.09%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.62%. In September, the production of 3.3757 million tons was scheduled, with a month on month increase of 0.73% and a year-on-year increase of 5.89%. Among them, the production of 400 series decreased significantly, while there was no significant change in the production of 300 series and 200 series. Market rumors suggested that a 304 steel plant in Guangxi will reduce production until the end of the month.

On the demand side, downstream demand was weak and the marginal improvement has not been significant. The number of inquiries has increased but actual transactions have been low. Decoration and renovation orders have declined significantly compared to previous years, and chemical orders were relatively quiet. Although the "trade in" policy has boosted sentiment in the home appliance industry, it still needs to be verified by the market in reality.

Market outlook

Overall, there was some release of macro recession concerns, but the demand for stainless steel was still dominated by rigid procurement, and prices lacked upward drivers. Effective rebound needs to wait for increased production cuts or improved demand. It is expected that the trend of stainless steel will remain stable in the short term.

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