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SunSirs: China MTBE Market Continues to Decline
June 18 2024 14:46:07SunSirs(Selena)

The domestic MTBE market fell in a narrow range. From June 10 to 17, the price of MTBE fell from 6,690 RMB/ton to 6,450 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 3.59%, 10.10% month on month, and 11.19% year on year. The domestic MTBE market fell significantly. Shandong Yuhuang, Qixiang Tengda, Dongying Shenchi and other products were normally sold abroad. The supply of resources increased significantly, and the margin of manufacturers' profits increased. The price of crude oil rose sporadically, but the enthusiasm of terminal operators to buy was not good. Then the market entered a downward trend again, and manufacturers sold more profits to promote shipment.

On the cost side, crude oil: the main positive factors for the rise in international oil prices are: Saudi Arabia and Russia reiterated their firm stance on opec+production reduction, market negative sentiment further eased, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September increased. As of June 14, the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $82.62/barrel.

On the demand side, for gasoline, the new round of retail price limit is expected to be raised, and the operating rate of Shandong local refinery has fallen to a low in recent two years. Refineries are willing to support the price due to low production and low inventory, and the gasoline market may have some support. Short term MTBE demand side is influenced by negative factors.

Supply side: Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Shihua units started construction, slightly higher than the previous cycle. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by negative factors.

As of the closing on June 6, the closing price of Asian MTBE market increased by $6/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $822.49-824.49/ton. The closing price of MTBE in Europe rose by US $3.25/t from the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at US $952.74-953.24/t. The closing price of MTBE in the United States decreased by $5.68/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB closed at $963.50-963.85/ton (271.41-271.51 cents/gallon).

In the future, it is predicted that there is still too much resource supply, and most manufacturers have no export orders before the end of the month. At present, the pressure of excess supply in the market has always existed. MTBE analysts of SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market may continue to be weak in the short term.


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