According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic refined gasoline and diesel prices have increased in the past two days. As of the 7th, the domestic 92# gasoline price was 8,561.2 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.62%; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 7,339.6 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.11%.
Cost side: The crude oil market first fell and then rose
As of the 6th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.55 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $79.87 per barrel. Recently, the crude oil market has fallen first and then rose, and the crude oil market has experienced a significant decline at the beginning of the month. The main reason is that OPEC+, the oil producing country, has decided to gradually lift the voluntary deepening of production reduction space, which is expected to supply negative oil to the oil market. In the later stage, the international oil price trend rose due to the increase in the probability of the European Central Bank's interest rate cut combined with the Federal Reserve's September rate cut. Overall, the international oil price range fluctuates, while the domestic refined oil market remains relatively stable.
Supply side: Partial device load reduction and refinery operation decline
Recently, the maintenance equipment in Shandong has reduced production load, resulting in a decrease in the operating rate of Shandong local refineries. The average operating rate of Shandong local refineries has declined to around 51%, severely squeezing domestic refining profits, resulting in a significant decrease in profitability and a significant decrease in refinery operating enthusiasm. The supply of refined oil has decreased, and the market for refined gasoline and diesel has rebounded.
Demand side: There is no actual improvement in demand, and the gasoline and diesel market still shows weakness
In terms of gasoline, due to the impact of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, there has been a slight increase in residents' travel. In addition, the temperature has risen significantly, and the use of car air conditioning has increased. As a result, the demand for gasoline has slightly increased. However, overall, gasoline demand remains weak, and the gasoline market has slightly risen. In terms of diesel, there is not much change in downstream demand, and there is not much change in the operating rate of outdoor projects. Logistics and transportation are relatively normal, and it is currently in the wheat harvest stage. Agricultural oil consumption has increased, and diesel prices have risen.
Currently, geopolitical instability still has a certain positive impact on oil prices. The peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand, but the increase in US crude oil inventories is bearish for the crude oil market. Overall, the range of crude oil prices is mainly volatile. From a domestic perspective, the short-term operating rate of refineries still shows a downward trend. With the start of summer vacation, there may be an increase in residents' travel, coupled with an increase in fuel consumption due to rising temperatures, there is still room for a slight increase in the gasoline market in the later period; The demand for diesel has not changed much, and the supply has declined. In addition, diesel profits are limited, and diesel prices are at a low level. The diesel market may rise in the future.
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