According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of locally refined petroleum coke has been fluctuating recently. As of April 16, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1,600.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.32% from 1,655.00 RMB/ton on April 1.
Cost wise: Recently, the international oil price trend has risen. On the one hand, due to the unstable geopolitical situation, especially concerns about the possible escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel after April, international oil prices have formed strong support. On the other hand, US energy companies have cut the number of oil and gas drilling rigs for the fourth consecutive week, the first time since September 2023. Finally, the global outlook for future oil demand is optimistic, supported by positive factors, and crude oil prices are rising.
Supply side: Recently, the shutdown and maintenance of coking units in refineries, as well as production reduction, have gradually increased, resulting in a relative decrease in supply, which is beneficial to the petroleum coke market; The sulfur content of petroleum coke in some refineries has changed, and the price of petroleum coke fluctuates with the increase of sulfur content; At present, the overall low level of petroleum coke storage in the refinery; Recently, there have been relatively few new imported petroleum coke resources to the port, coupled with the fast delivery speed of petroleum coke from various ports, resulting in a decrease in the storage of petroleum coke in the port.
On the demand side, as of April 11th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has decreased by 5 compared to the previous month, with a total of 289 furnaces in operation. Shaanxi will reduce one unit, Xinjiang will decrease six units, and Sichuan will increase one unit. At present, the situation of inverted production costs in silicon factories is severe, with few enterprises in Southwest China starting production. Xinjiang silicon enterprises are under cost pressure to reduce production, and silicon enterprises are offering high prices without offering prices, resulting in an overall reduction in supply. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.
In recent times, the overall market for medium sulfur calcined coke has remained stable. Currently, most enterprises are selling at a stable price, and market demand is expected to increase in the later stage. However, the demand for the negative electrode market is limited, and most enterprises mainly focus on executing preliminary orders.
Recently, aluminum prices have risen first and then fallen, with an overall increase. Currently, the southwestern region is experiencing drought, and the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production in Yunnan may not be as expected; The price of overseas alumina has risen due to the impact of reduced production, supporting the domestic electrolytic aluminum market. At present, downstream aluminum carbon enterprises mainly purchase petroleum coke on demand.
At present, the monitoring level of petroleum coke prices is at a one-year low, a two-year low, and a three-year low. According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the average price of petroleum coke in the past three years is 2,866.46 RMB/ton, with a median value of 3,427.38 RMB/ton, a minimum value of 1,600.00 RMB/ton, and a maximum value of 5,254.75 RMB/ton. The bottom price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 0 RMB/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past three years) is -3,654.75 RMB/ton.
Currently, local refineries are gradually shutting down for maintenance, leading to tight supply of petroleum coke and overall low inventory in refineries; At present, the price changes of refined petroleum coke mainly follow the adjustment of refinery sulfur indicators. It is expected that the recent consolidation of the local refining petroleum coke market will be the main trend, with prices mostly following changes in refinery petroleum coke shipment indicators.
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