According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of refined petroleum coke in Shandong market fell first and then rose last week. As of March 25th, the price of refined petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1,657.50 RMB/ton, a 2.50% decrease from 1,700.00 RMB/ton on March 18th.

Cost side: Last week, the international crude oil market first rose and then fell, supported by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East in the early stage; In addition, the expected reduction in production by oil producing countries is also a major factor supporting oil prices, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The weak data on US gasoline demand in the later period and reports on the draft resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza by the United Nations have put pressure on oil prices.

Supply side: Last week, the shutdown and maintenance of coking units in refineries, as well as production reduction, gradually increased, resulting in a relative decrease in supply, which is beneficial to the petroleum coke market; The sulfur content of petroleum coke in some refineries has increased, and the annual sulfur content of petroleum coke prices has fluctuated; Imported sponge coke continues to arrive at the port, with average shipping speed and an increase in port inventory.

On the demand side: As of March 21st, the number of domestic silicon metal furnaces in operation was 318, with an overall furnace opening rate of 42.4%, a decrease of 7 compared to last week. Some silicon companies have resumed work or planned to resume work due to preferential electricity prices, but their overall willingness to start work is still weakened by cost pressures. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

Last week, the overall price of medium sulfur calcined coke increased. Recently, some negative electrode factories have started to purchase calcined coke one after another, and the shipment of calcined coke has improved. Currently, calcined coke enterprises are operating steadily, and the market supply is relatively sufficient.

Last week, aluminum prices rose, and the traditional peak consumption season was approaching. Downstream demand may improve. The production capacity and operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, aluminum foil, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys are gradually recovering with the resumption of production and work. The future spot trading is expected to improve from the current light trend. Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises have weak support for petroleum coke demand, with on-demand procurement being the main focus.

Market forecast: Currently, the coking equipment in refineries is undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the supply of petroleum coke for local refining, which is beneficial to the petroleum coke market; But currently, downstream demand is limited, and the market maintains a focus on essential procurement; In addition, the continuous arrival of imported petroleum coke at the port has led to an increase in the storage of petroleum coke in the port. Overall, it is expected that the prices of refined petroleum coke in the near future will mainly consolidate.

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