According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp have been continuously rising recently. On March 9, 2024, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,038 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.9% compared to the average price of 5,984 RMB/ton on March 1. On March 9th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong was 5,390 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.89% compared to the average price of 5,290 RMB/ton on March 1st.
By observing market changes, it can be seen that the spot price of wood pulp has shown a strong upward trend recently, and the futures price of pulp has continued to rise. In terms of supply, the new round of needle pulp US gold prices remained unchanged, but due to the high taxable prices, it limited the downward space of futures. With the occurrence of a new round of strikes by Finnish port workers, there may be a reduction in the export supply of softwood pulp from Finland in the future. In addition, the quantity of broadleaf pulp exported from Brazil to China in February has significantly decreased compared to the previous month, leading to a significant increase in broadleaf prices. The price difference between Russian needles and mainstream broadleaf spot prices is already small.
As of March 7, 2024, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.128 million tons, a decrease of 4.5% from the previous period, and the inventory showed a trend of destocking for two consecutive cycles.
In terms of demand, the operating rate of downstream paper mills is continuously increasing, which is beginning to boost the demand for wood pulp. The prices of cultural paper, household paper, and other materials also tend to rise, and the rise in paper prices indicates that the expectations of gold, silver, and four are constantly being fulfilled. Recently, with the rise in spot pulp prices, small and medium-sized enterprises that rely on spot pulp have seen an increase in costs and a compression in profits. As a result, the main paper companies are determined to raise prices. At the current time of the first quarter, there is currently no significant consumer driving force in the terminal, and the demand for goods is mainly maintained.
In terms of futures, on March 11, 2024, the opening price of the main contract of SP2405 pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,970 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,990 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 6,050 RMB/ton, with a daily increase of 0.74%. The trading volume was 343,100 lots, and the position was 217,239 lots.
The prices of white cardboard and gray background whiteboard are currently stable. On March 9th, the average market price of white cardboard 230g-400g was 5,206.67 RMB/ton, while the average market price of gray background whiteboard 250g was 3,999 RMB/ton. After the holiday, the price of white cardboard paper mills showed a clear upward trend, and a notice of price increase in April was issued in early March. Affected by the rise in paper mill prices, traders are facing increased cost pressures and a reluctance to sell at low prices. In terms of whiteboard paper, from the end of February to early March, large-scale paper mills have successively implemented price preferential policies, causing some nearby paper mills to follow suit. With limited new orders from downstream customers and insufficient overall market demand follow-up, prices are temporarily stable and on the sidelines. From the current terminal demand, due to their similar consumption attributes and high overlap in application fields, they are more consistent in their impact on demand changes.
SunSirs Wood Pulp Analysts believe that in recent times, the spot price of wood pulp has been continuously rising due to the rise in pulp futures. Against the backdrop of less severe supply side conflicts, changes in demand side have become the main factor driving price fluctuations. Therefore, pulp currently maintains an optimistic outlook, and it is expected that the spot price of wood pulp will tend to be strong in the short term.
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