Aluminum prices slightly rebounded at the end of February
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on February 29, 2024 was 18,876.67 RMB/ton. Aluminum prices had steadily increased this week, up 160 RMB/ton from Monday's market average price of 18,716.67 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.85%.
Based on monthly data, the current price was close to the pre holiday (February 8th) aluminum price of 18,860 RMB/ton%. In the long term, the price was in the "M" type price state since the second half of 2023, and the price level had been in the upper middle level in the past year.
Overview of fundamentals this week
The influencing factors on the supply side
On the news side, the power outage incident at an aluminum plant in Inner Mongolia may affect production capacity, and actual production changes were limited; In the southwest direction, Yunnan had good precipitation, and the hydroelectric power generation may drive the resumption of a small amount of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in March. Yunnan's early production reduction had been basically completed, and the risk of subsequent production reduction is relatively small. It is expected that Yunnan's production will steadily increase slightly before the rainy season, with little variation.
The influencing factors on the demand side
After the Lantern Festival, downstream consumption had gradually recovered, and the construction of automobiles and photovoltaic panels was still acceptable. The construction sector had also begun to recover from a low level recently. The overall demand had improved.
Market outlook
The traditional peak season for consumption is approaching, and downstream demand may improve. The production capacity and operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, aluminum foils, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys are gradually recovering with the resumption of production and work. The future spot trading is expected to improve from the current light trend. It is expected that aluminum prices will experience fluctuations to be stronger in the short term.
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