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SunSirs: China MTBE Market was Fluctuating in February
March 01 2024 14:58:17SunSirs(Selena)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market has rebounded and fluctuated. From February 1st to 29th, the price of MTBE first fell from 6,487 RMB/ton and then rose to 6,625 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 2.12% during the cycle and a maximum amplitude of 2.32%. The price fell by 6.16% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic MTBE market saw sporadic adjustments, with some major manufacturers gathering at export ports, resulting in a continued strong offer. With this support, other manufacturers were also not willing to offer discounts. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday, some manufacturers were arranging inventory and slightly offered discounts during the period, but the extent was relatively limited. In the latter half of the month, the domestic MTBE price was pushed up, but downstream procurement enthusiasm was not good after the upward push, and the market situation slightly declined. At the same time, due to widespread rainy and snowy weather, logistics have been hindered, and manufacturers have increased their profit margins. After the holiday, the demand for gasoline at the end of the year has not recovered as expected. Business owners have a moderate enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials, with a strong wait-and-see attitude, and MTBE is mainly stagnant and consolidating.

In terms of cost and crude oil, international crude oil prices fluctuated at a high level in February. During the traditional Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, international crude oil experienced a strong rebound. The main reason is focused on the issue of geopolitical tension in the Middle East. As of the close on February 28th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.15 per barrel, a decrease of $0.41 or 0.5%.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, during the Spring Festival holiday, businesses moderately restocked before the holiday, and the transaction atmosphere improved. Prices remained stable and pushed up, with slight adjustments during the holiday period. After the holiday, end businesses moderately restocked, and the demand side was relatively good. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, both Tian'an in Qingzhou and Chengtai in Shandong will undergo maintenance within the month. In the latter half of the month, the construction of the new MTBE unit in Anqing Taiheng will begin, resulting in narrow fluctuations in resource supply during the month. In March, Yuhuang, Shenchi, and Bengu had maintenance plans, but the maintenance time for Shenchi and Bengu may be at the end of March, and the overall supply during the month may be relatively abundant. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on February 28th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $3.25 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $911.99-913.99 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has decreased by $11.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1,142.49-1,142.99/ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market has decreased by $15.34 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $1,058.85-1,059.20 per ton (298.27-298.37 cents per gallon).

In the future, it is predicted that some large manufacturers will export to ports in the near future, and the sales outside of resources will decrease, forming a certain positive support for the domestic market. From the perspective of gasoline consumption on the demand side, as the weather warms up and the frequency of business trips increases, gasoline consumption is expected to increase. The overall demand side is in a positive trend. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market will mainly consolidate at a high level in the short term.


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