Market forecast for 2024:

Supply side:

The production capacity of ECH had maintained a growth trend in 2022 and 2023, with an additional production capacity of around 300,000 tons in 2023. The production in 2023 had also slightly increased compared to 2022, and it is expected that the supply side of ECH will continue to show an incremental expectation in 2024.

On the demand side:

The main downstream epoxy resins, according to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, saw a decline in market prices in 2023. The starting price was 15,833.33 RMB/ton, and the ending price was 13,233.33 RMB/ton, with an annual decline of 16.42%. In 2023, the production capacity utilization rate of the epoxy resin industry was low, and support for the ECH market was weak. It is expected that the production capacity of epoxy resins will continue to grow in 2024, More attention still needs to be paid to the impact of the production of epoxy resin on the market of ECH.

Cost side:

Upstream propylene: In 2023, the Chinese propylene market fluctuated and declined. Taking Shandong propylene as an example, the average price at the beginning of the year was 7,244.60 RMB/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 6,868.25 RMB/ton, with a 5.19% decline in the domestic market. Based on a comprehensive analysis of crude oil and supply and demand, it is expected that the center of propylene prices in 2024 may continue to decline compared to 2023, and the expected decline is relatively controllable.

Import and export:

According to customs data, the total import volume of ECH in China in 2023 was 1,368,058 kilograms, a year-on-year decrease of 25.73%. In 2023, the total export volume of ECH in China was 57,860,383 kilograms, a year-on-year decrease of 19.66%.

Comprehensive prediction:

In summary, it is expected that the supply and demand of ECH will double increase in 2024, and the demand side may still dominate the market. It is expected that the ECH market will fluctuate narrowly in 2024, and more attention still needs to be paid to cost pressure.

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