According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market has been narrowly consolidated. From January 12th to 19th, the price of MTBE dropped from 6,487 RMB/ton to 6,445 RMB/ton, with a slight rebound in the middle and later stages of the week. The price fell by 0.66% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 2.12%, a month on month increase of 0.23%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.22%.

The domestic MTBE market is mainly adjusted in a stable and downward trend, with some manufacturers in certain regions having high inventory levels. Before the holiday, manufacturers have a certain willingness to reduce inventory and prioritize profit volume. With more export orders signed, mostly in February and March, the mentality of the industry has been greatly boosted, and prices have rebounded.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: Within the same cycle, the International Energy Agency predicts that global demand will increase, coupled with low commercial crude oil inventories in the United States, international crude oil futures prices will slightly recover and consolidate. As of January 18th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $79.10 per barrel, an increase of $1.22 or 1.6%.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, international crude oil futures have fluctuated upwards, while the refined oil market in Shandong region is weak and difficult to improve. Refineries in the region have lowered prices to promote sales, but insufficient terminal demand has led to slow digestion of social unit inventory. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, facilities such as Shenyang Wax Chemical, Dongying Qifa, and Debao Road are still in shutdown, and some manufacturers are exporting to the port, reducing exports. The market circulation resources will be reduced, and the short-term domestic MTBE supply will be affected by favorable factors.

As of the close on January 18th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $20.5 per ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $864.99-866.99 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has increased by $10/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $959.49-959.99/ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market increased by $25.06 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $963.28-963.64 per ton (271.35-271.45 cents per gallon).

In the future market forecast, due to an increase in exports and a gradual decrease in export volume, there is an expectation of a reduction in resource supply. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream restocking will gradually begin, and end-users have a certain enthusiasm for stocking up. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that there is a possibility of a narrow upward trend in the domestic MTBE market in the short term.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.