According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, due to the derivative of the post COVID-19 era, the demand of patent medicine enterprises and decoction pieces enterprises, and the severe drought at the end of 2022, the price of ophiopogon japonicus will gradually rise rapidly from October in the second half of 2022. In the leap month of February this year, the solar term was postponed, and the actual excavation time of Sichuan Ophiopogon japonicus production area was too early, resulting in a low drying rate and high unit price of fresh Ophiopogon japonicus unearthed, showing a trend of reduced production. The price of Ophiopogon japonicus was quickly pushed up, and the total price increased from 88-92 RMB/kg before production to 140-145 RMB/kg, with an increase of 60.74%.

During the new production period, most pharmaceutical companies were not well adapted, and they chose to wait and see. Therefore, during the new production period, Ophiopogon japonicus pharmaceutical companies were not very good at digesting their sources of goods. In the second half of the year, after the new production of Sichuan Ophiopogon, with the stability of the Ophiopogon market, domestic pharmaceutical companies have obvious rigid demand, and the market sales situation has improved. With a large amount of procurement demand from pharmaceutical companies, the Ophiopogon market has steadily risen. At the beginning of the year, the average price of Sichuan Ophiopogon japonicus was 89.17 RMB/kg, and at the end of the year, the average price was 159.50 RMB/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 78.87%.

From the market trends of Ophiopogon japonicus over the years, during the 2020 epidemic, the demand for Ophiopogon japonicus was sluggish, and the price continued to hover at a low level of around 48-53 RMB/kg. In 2021, the Central Plains will encounter a rainstorm, and the production of several Chinese medicinal materials will be reduced due to the disaster. The market of ophiopogon japonicus will slowly climb to the middle high price of 71 RMB/kg with the trend of the big market of Chinese medicinal materials. In 2022, the new production of Sichuan Maidong was not small, but due to the significant reduction in production of Sichuan Maidong, the price of Sichuan Maidong stabilized after a slight decline in the market. In December 2022, due to changes in epidemic prevention and control policies, the usage increased sharply in the short term, and the inventory of Sichuan Maidong decreased, resulting in a significant increase in the market to 90 RMB/kg. In 2023, the production of Ophiopogon japonicus will be reduced, continuing the high price trend at the end of last year and rising to a historical high of 160 RMB/kg.

From the annual comparison chart of SunSirs over the past four years, it can be seen that the price of Ophiopogon japonicus in 2023 is significantly higher than that of the previous three years. How can the market trend of Ophiopogon japonicus in 2024 be interpreted?

From the perspective of production: Sichuan Maidong is produced in Sichuan Province, with the production area concentrated in the Fujiang River Basin of Santai County, Mianyang City. In the past, Sichuan Maidong was harvested and planted between Qingming and Guyu, but in recent years, the actual harvesting and planting time has been around the Spring Festival. The soil in Santai County is very suitable for the growth of Ophiopogon japonicus, accounting for over 80% of the national yield.

In recent years, with the continuous growth of overall domestic demand for Ophiopogon japonicus, as the main supply county of Ophiopogon japonicus in China, the overall production of Ophiopogon japonicus in Santai County, Mianyang City, Sichuan Province has continued to rise. From 9,895 tons in 2013 to 16,909 tons in 2021, an increase of 7,014 tons, the overall production continued to rise in 2022, reaching 17,876 tons, an increase of 5.72% compared to 2021.

The harvesting area of Sichuan Maidong in 2023 has increased compared to last year, but due to the drought in the early growth period, its size is not large this year, with a certain decrease in the normal annual yield of 300-350 kilograms per mu, and a significant decrease compared to last year's high yield. Meanwhile, due to the impact of February this year, the wheat winter harvested in the early part of this year is not yet mature, and the drying rate is relatively low. The drying rate in the early part is mostly 5.2:1, further reducing the output of dry goods. It is expected that the production will be around 17,000 tons in 2023.

From the perspective of demand: ophiopogon japonicus is the original material of traditional Chinese patent medicines and simple preparations and health care products with the functions of moistening the lung and heart, nourishing yin and stomach, relieving cough, vomiting, thirst, bleeding, etc. It can be used as a health tea and health soup for clearing heat and detoxification. The market demand is broad. With the development of the information age and the improvement of human quality of life, food safety and physical health are highly valued, and dietary quality requirements are constantly increasing. This has led to an expansion of the use and demand for green and natural Chinese medicinal materials in domestic and foreign pharmaceutical markets.

According to the statistics of the National traditional Chinese patent medicines and simple preparations Product Catalog, there are 89 kinds of traditional Chinese patent medicines and simple preparations, such as Xuanmai Chongji, Shengmaiyin, Qingchunbao, etc., which are produced with Ophiopogon japonicus as raw materials. In terms of foreign trade, Ophiopogon japonicus is also an important export commodity of China, exported to various Asian countries.

At the end of 2022, due to changes in epidemic prevention policies, the demand for anti epidemic varieties increased, stimulating a short-term surge in the market for anti epidemic medicinal materials. At the same time, it also drove up the market for traditional Chinese medicinal materials such as Ophiopogon japonicus, which have the effects of moistening the lungs, relieving cough, nourishing yin, and promoting saliva production.

According to statistics, the usage of Ophiopogon japonicus in 2021 was around 12,880 tons, and in 2022 it was around 13,250 tons. It is estimated that the usage of Ophiopogon japonicus in 2023 will be around 13,000 tons.

From the perspective of planting area: In recent years, when new varieties of Ophiopogon japonicus were produced, the price mostly fluctuated around 50-70 RMB/kg. Although the income per mu of medicinal farmers was over 10,000 RMB, the enthusiasm for planting did not increase, and the planting area of Ophiopogon japonicus did not significantly expand. One reason is that the harvesting of Ophiopogon japonicus is time-consuming and labor-intensive, requiring manual harvesting. While harvesting Ophiopogon japonicus, planting is also carried out simultaneously. Most growers plant it while digging, resulting in the inability to plant it on a large scale.

Secondly, the planting cost of Ophiopogon japonicus is 3,000-4,000 RMB/mu. Generally, seedlings do not need to be purchased, while new planters need to buy seedlings. The prices of seedlings vary from year to year, and the seedlings are not large, mainly due to fertilizer and labor costs. In the words of growers, working in the city can earn around 200 RMB per day for one laborer.

Thirdly, due to the continuous planting of Ophiopogon japonicus, the yield per unit area has decreased, and each household's land is limited, making it difficult to expand the planting on a large scale. At most, only a few acres of their own land can be planted, and few people go to package the land for planting. The cost of large-scale package planting is higher, which is another factor that Ophiopogon japonicus cannot be expanded on a large scale.

However, this year, the price of new season's Ophiopogon japonicus is between 125-135 RMB/kg, and the price of fresh fruits is between 12-16 RMB/jin. For wheat farmers, the income is quite high, with a yield of 30,000 to 40,000 RMB per mu. Excluding the investment of 10,000 RMB per mu, the net profit is still very considerable. Therefore, the enthusiasm of farmers is high this year, and the planting area of Ophiopogon japonicus has significantly expanded.

In summary, due to the increasing emphasis on the traceability and authenticity of traditional Chinese medicine cultivation in the context of the national health industry in the past two to three years, the demand for Ophiopogon japonicus as a medicinal and edible Chinese medicine has significantly increased. Pharmaceutical and herbal medicine companies have weak inventory, with new production cuts for Ophiopogon japonicus in the first half of the year and mandatory procurement in the second half. This year, the demand for Ophiopogon japonicus is almost entirely rigid.

At present, the inventory of Ophiopogon japonicus in the production area has bottomed out, and it is estimated that the production area can supply about 600 tons of the national market. There are very few scattered goods, and SunSirs analysis suggests that there may be some room for price increase of Ophiopogon japonicus before production.

At the same time, under the stimulation of high prices this year, production in various production areas of Ophiopogon japonicus has resumed, new by-product areas have emerged, and the planting area of Ophiopogon japonicus has significantly expanded. The production of Ophiopogon japonicus may increase next year. SunSirs analysis suggests that the price of Ophiopogon japonicus may gradually decline after producing new varieties in 2024.

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