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SunSirs: The Market for BR is Weak and Declining
November 29 2023 10:06:56SunSirs(Selena)

Last week (11.20-11.27), the market for BR was weak and fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of November 27th, the market price of BR in East China was 12,290 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous week's Monday at 12,370 RMB/ton.

The price of raw material butadiene has stabilized at a high level, and there is still support for the cost of BR. Downstream tire factories have slightly increased their production compared to mid November, and demand has improved in the face of support for BR. On the 27th, some merchants reported a slight increase in prices, but the supply of BR is relatively loose, and the overall market for BR is still weak. As of November 27th, PetroChina Northeast Sales Company's Daqing Shunding Northeast Warehouse has raised prices by 12,000 RMB/ton, while the mainstream prices in the Shunding rubber market in eastern China, such as Daqing, Sichuan, Yangzi, Yanshan, and Qilu, are reported at 11,900-12,500 RMB/ton; Private polyBR costs 11,600-11,800 RMB/ton.

Last week (11.20-11.27), there was a narrow fluctuation in the operation of domestic BR plants, and the Qixiang Tengda BR plant was put into operation with reduced load; The Shunding unit of Maoming Petrochemical is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance in December.

Last week (11.20-11.27), the price of butadiene stabilized at a high level, and there is still support for the cost of BR. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of November 27th, the price of butadiene was at 9,538 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.03% from last Monday's 9,541 RMB/ton, and the lowest point in the cycle was 9,493 RMB/ton.

Last week (11.20-11.27), the natural rubber market slightly declined and the price difference of BR slightly narrowed, but the impact on BR is still more significant. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 27th, the price was 12,940 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.60% from last Monday's 13,150 RMB/ton.

Demand side: Last week (11.20-11.27), tire production started with a slight increase in all steel tires, providing some support for rubber. But currently, the demand for tires is gradually entering the off-season at the end of the year, and tire companies are gradually accumulating inventory. The expectation of tire production in the later stage will decrease, and the impact on rubber is biased. It is understood that as of late November 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was 640%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.8%.

Market forecast: SunSirs analysts believe that in the short term, the narrow fluctuations in raw material prices will continue to support the cost side of BR, and the demand side is expected to weaken in the off-season. However, Maoming Petrochemical has a parking and maintenance plan in the later stage, and the supply side of BR is also expected to decline. It is expected that the spot market of BR will mainly fluctuate in the later stage.


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