Price trend
As shown in the above figure, copper prices had fluctuated and risen this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation was 68,056.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.51% from the 67,711.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 5.21%.
According to the weekly chart of ups and downs by SunSirs, copper prices had fallen for 4 weeks and risen for 7 weeks in the past three months. Recently, copper prices had rebounded slightly after falling.
Analysis review
According to data from SunSirs, the accumulation of LME copper inventory had eased, with inventory falling from high levels, which had boosted copper prices.
Macroscopically: Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting decided to keep interest rates unchanged, and the market gave a dove like interpretation of Fed Chairman Powell's remarks, causing industrial metals and stocks, crude oil, and other assets to rise together, reflecting an improvement in investors' risk appetite.
Supply side: Recently, there had been less disturbance in overseas copper mines, but the processing cost of copper concentrate continued to decline, mainly affected by the demand for raw material replenishment in smelters at the end of the year. In September, the domestic refined copper production reached 1.012 million tons, an increase of 2.3% month on month and 11.3% year-on-year; Expected to reach 996,000 tons in October.
On the demand side: Terminal consumption had rebounded, and some companies were buying on dips to replenish inventory.
Market outlook
To sum up: The recovery of macro sentiment has seen relatively stable terminal demand. The market's dove bet on the Federal Reserve and the decline of US bond yields have pushed the US dollar down, and the metal pressure has been postponed, which further improved the prospects of metal demand. Global copper inventory levels have fallen, supporting copper prices. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate to be stronger in the short term.
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