SunSirs: There Was No Obvious Driver for Supply and Demand, and the Price of Polyester Staple Fiber May Decline

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic polyester staple fiber market prices had slightly rebounded recently. As of October 18th, the average price of the 1.4D * 38mm polyester staple fiber quoted by polyester staple fiber factories was 7,722 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.39% compared to October 15th.

Analysis review

Due to the macroeconomic and global geopolitical turmoil, the recent international crude oil prices experienced significant fluctuations. As of October 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 86.66 US dollars per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 89.90 US dollars per barrel.

PTA fluctuated with crude oil prices, but the amplitude was not significant. As of October 18th, the PTA market price in East China was 5,867 RMB/ton. There were maintenance and load reduction phenomena in the PTA factory, with Hengli Petrochemical's 2.2 million ton unit undergoing maintenance for about two weeks on October 7th, and Ineos 1# 1.1 million ton PTA unit undergoing maintenance from mid October to the end of November. The load of the 2# 1,250,000 ton device was between 80-90%. The PTA industry's construction had decreased to around 74%.

Downstream yarn factories purchased according to demand, with a cautious purchasing mindset. The yarn factory's shipments were average, and the operation was relatively stable. As of October 18th, the reference price for pure polyester yarn in the Shandong region was 12,850 RMB/ton. The profit of the yarn factory was still in a loss state, and the trading atmosphere was average. The new season orders had been placed for production, but it had not yet reached the level of the same period in previous years.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that as of the 18th, the polyester staple fiber market had been mainly on the sidelines, with costs stabilizing and no obvious driving force for supply and demand. It was difficult for downstream actual demand to improve significantly and had been lukewarm. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers may decline in the short term.

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