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SunSirs: China Methanol Market Rose first and then Fell
September 22 2023 10:20:38SunSirs(Selena)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from September 14th to 21st (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic methanol market increased from 2,527 RMB/ton to 2,539 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price increased by 0.46%, with a maximum amplitude of 3.10%, a month on month increase of 3.71%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.07%.

The domestic methanol market has experienced a narrow correction. At present, the raw material coal provides strong support, and the methanol market price has been operating at a high level for some time. The profit losses of production enterprises have been alleviated, and the unit operating rate has significantly rebounded, maintaining around 70%. The supply side is affected by negative factors. On the other hand, downstream demand is relatively strong, and pre holiday stocking and downstream product operating rates are both positive to some extent. Futures have fallen in the past two days, affecting the atmosphere of spot trading.

As of the close on September 21st, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has declined. The main methanol futures contract 2401 opened at 2,591 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 2,601 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 2,545 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,547 RMB/ton in the late trading session, a decrease of 61% or 2.34% compared to the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 1,230,018 lots, the position was 1,237,089 lots, and the daily increase was -28,890 lots.

On the cost side, coal is still showing an upward trend in the short term, with supply being the main influencing factor. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, downstream chloride: Luxi Chemical Plant may resume production, and chloride demand may increase; Downstream MTBE: The incoming materials of Lihuayi devices are about to be shipped, and the demand for MTBE may increase; The demand for formaldehyde and dimethyl ether may not change significantly. The demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, Inner Mongolia Shilin 30, Ningxia Hening 30, and Xinjiang Xinlianxin 100,000 ton/year units are about to restart, with abundant supply in mainland China. The overall recovery is greater than the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on September 20th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $349.50- $350.50 per ton, a decrease of $1 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 75.00-77.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 248.50-249.50 euros/ton, up 6 euros/ton.

According to future predictions, despite high coal prices, methanol cost support remains significant. The market supply performance is abundant, although there is still downstream stocking demand before the Double Festival, the overall strength may be limited. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate.


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