According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market is highly volatile. From August 25th to September 1st, the price of MTBE increased from 7,725 RMB/ton to 7,837 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.46% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 4.33%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.06%. With the support of positive factors such as the rise in crude oil and the signing of a large number of export orders, some manufacturers have started to export to ports, resulting in a tightening of resource supply. Manufacturers actively pushed up their prices, but after the price rose to a high level, downstream resistance increased, and the market slightly corrected and reorganized, but the extent was limited. Subsequently, supported by the rise in crude oil, the price market once again pushed up.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices continue to rise, and there are reports that OPEC+ production cuts in oil producing countries will continue until the end of 2023. As the reduction takes effect, supply tightening expectations are expected to increase oil prices. As of the close on September 1st, the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was at $88.55 per barrel, an increase of $1.72 or 2.0%. The domestic oil industry chain is influenced by favorable factors.
In terms of demand and gasoline, the prices of domestic refined gasoline and diesel have slightly increased, while the overall price of finished oil in the market is at a high level. As of the 1st day, the price of 92# gasoline in China was 9,004 RMB/ton, with a slight increase of 0.46% this week; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 7,884.4 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.49% this week. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, facilities such as Shenyang Wax Chemical, Lihuayi, and Yantai Wanhua are still in shutdown. After last week's Lihuayi and Wanhua maintenance, it continued to affect this week's production. Lu Shen sent in materials but has not yet shipped them normally. Based on comprehensive calculations, the utilization rate of production capacity and the month on month production have decreased this week. Lu Shenfa will start shipping normally next week, and production is expected to increase. The supply side of MTBE is mixed.
As of the close on September 1st, the Asian MTBE market is closed. The closing price of the European MTBE market has increased by $21/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1,419.99- $1,420.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $22.44 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at $1,576.44- $1,576.79 per ton ($444.07- $444.17 per gallon).
In the future market, it is predicted that some manufacturers still have export ports, and there is a temporary shortage of resource supply. Currently, the price is on the high side, and downstream may breed resistance, which will affect the procurement volume. SunSirs MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by high volatility in the short term.
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