According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market is highly volatile. On August 21st and 25th, the price of MTBE first decreased from 7,737 RMB/ton and then increased to 7,725 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price decreased by 0.16%, with a month on month increase of 2.32% and a year-on-year increase of 4.25%. The continuous decline in international crude oil prices has affected the oil market, and the domestic MTBE market lacks support for demand, resulting in a downward trend in prices; However, the external market prices have continued to rise, with a large number of export orders signed since the weekend, which has supported the mentality of domestic businesses. At the same time, Lihuayi devices have been repaired on schedule, resource supply has been reduced, and the MTBE market has seen a narrow upward trend.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have relatively declined, with the main bearish factors being weak global manufacturing data and the possibility of the United States maintaining high interest rates for a long time. As of the close on August 24th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $79.05 per barrel; The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures is at $83.36 per barrel. The domestic oil industry chain is mixed.
On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, the continuous decline in international crude oil prices has affected the oil market. The finished oil market in Shandong region is weak and declining, and intermediaries are mostly holding currency and watching. Only a few downstream users just need to restock. The overall shipment performance of refineries is poor, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. The gasoline market trend is flat, and short-term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, facilities such as Shenyang Waxing and Shandong Lushenfa are still in parking. Dongying Qifa started construction on August 19th, Lihuayi repaired on August 20th, and Chengtai started construction on August 21st. The supply side of MTBE is mixed.
As of the close on August 24th, the Asian MTBE market closed flat compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $1,029.05-$1,031.05/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has increased by $44/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1,347.99/ton-$1,348.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $34.16/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at $1,439.52/ton-$1,439.87/ton ($405.50- $405.60 per gallon).
In the future, it is predicted that some devices will soon undergo maintenance, and there are expectations of a decrease in resource supply. MTBE analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic MTBE market will mainly experience high volatility in the short term.
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