Price trend

As the weekend approached, domestic liquid ammonia continued to rise, and manufacturers' quotations were rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the main production area in Shandong was increased by 2.96% this week. As of August 24th, the trading center had moved up the range of 150 to 250 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the week. As of August 24th, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region was between 3,400-3,600 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

On the supply side, the increase in liquid ammonia was mainly due to the tight supply performance in the main production areas in the north, which was supported by tight supply. Some devices in the northern region were still undergoing maintenance, and sudden production restrictions in regions such as Shanxi had led to a short-term decline in enterprise operating rates and tight supply. There was a widespread phenomenon of vehicles queuing up for goods in production enterprises. The manufacturer's quotation had been raised multiple times this week, with a cumulative increase of over 200 RMB/ton. The dealer's offer naturally rose.

On the demand side, the downstream urea market steadily increased, with an increase of less than 50 RMB/ton this week. From a terminal perspective, agricultural demand followed up in a timely manner, while industrial demand was mainly supported by rigid demand. However, there were not many new export orders, which may become a limiting factor for the rise of liquid ammonia in the later stage.

Market outlook

Liquid ammonia analysts from SunSirs believe that the tight supply of liquid ammonia recently would continue for a period of time, and in the absence of significant changes in demand, there may still be room for upward movement in the price of liquid ammonia.

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