According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, since August, the soybean meal market has been fluctuating and rising for more than half a month, with prices reaching a new high of 4,800 RMB/ton. On August 1st, the average market price of soybean meal was 4,444 RMB/ton. On August 17th, the average market price of soybean meal was 4,800 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 8.01%.

The oscillation and rise of soybean meal market in this round are mainly influenced by the following factors:

Supply side: From January to July 2023, China's cumulative soybean import volume was 62.303 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15%. According to the statistical chart of imported soybeans from January to July 2023, it can be seen that the number of imported soybeans was the highest in May, with a gradual decline in June and July. Among them, soybean imports in July were 9.731 million tons, a decrease of 5.24% month on month. In August, due to the tightening of customs quarantine, the import of soybeans into soybean oil factories decreased, and the supply of soybean meal tightened, leading to a continuous rise in the market.

Inventory: According to the statistical chart of domestic soybean meal inventory from January to August, it can be seen that soybean meal inventory began to decline continuously in March and had already dropped to the annual low of 200,000 tons in early May. In mid May, soybean meal inventory continued to increase, reaching an annual peak of 710,000 tons until the end of June. Since July, soybean meal inventory has decreased and gradually rebounded, continuing until early August. In mid August, soybean meal inventory decreased to the first line of 680,000 tons. The pressure on soybean meal inventory has eased, supporting the rise of soybean meal market.

Futures: Since August, American soybeans have still been in the growth stage, and the excellent rate continues to be at a relatively low level. The external soybean futures market has risen, and the domestic soybean meal market has been supported. Due to the exchange of futures positions for months, there has been a certain gap in the soybean meal futures market. After a brief adjustment, the market continues to oscillate and rise, while the spot market continues to oscillate and rise with the market. As of August 17th, soybean meal received 3,962 RMB/ton, a daily increase of 75 RMB/ton.

Demand side: Since August, terminal meat prices have remained high, profits have increased, pig stocks have remained high, rigid demand from feed factories has rebounded, and the quantity of soybean meal purchased has increased. The Mid Autumn and National Day holidays are approaching, and the demand side is positive. The soybean meal market continues to rise.

Li Bing, an agricultural product analyst at SunSirs, believes that after mid August, the Double Festival is approaching, with terminal rigid demand supporting, and there is still room for soybean meal to rise in the future.

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