According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market fluctuates significantly. On August 7th and 15th, the price of MTBE dropped from 7,725 RMB/ton to 7,637 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 1.13% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 4.80%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.70%. The MTBE market fluctuates with the international crude oil market during the cycle. In the early stage, the international crude oil market was supported by positive results, while manufacturers had a large number of orders in the early stage, resulting in tight spot supply and less pressure to sell goods. The market actively pushed up. The international crude oil trend is not good, with a strong wait-and-see mentality at the end. Downstream businesses are cautious in purchasing, and the price return is relatively weak.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: From August 7th to 10th, due to market supply concerns, the fermentation continued, coupled with the phased positive oil consumption season. International crude oil futures continued their upward trend, reaching a nearly 9-month high. As of the close on August 14th, global economic growth remained slow, coupled with a rise in the US dollar exchange rate and a decline in international oil prices. The domestic oil industry chain is mixed.
In terms of demand and gasoline, this round of retail price limit has been raised, and with the continued positive news, the refined oil market in Shandong region continues to rise. The gasoline market is actively pushing up, providing positive support for the MTBE market, and the short-term demand for MTBE is influenced by positive factors.
On the supply side, facilities such as Shenyang Wax Chemical, Dongying Qifa, and Shandong Lushenfa are still in shutdown, while Maoming Shihua facilities are resuming work, increasing resource supply, and increasing capacity utilization and output. Dongying Qifa has a construction plan, and there may be a moderate increase in production. The supply side of MTBE is mixed.
As of the close on August 14th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $9/ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $996.99- $998.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $7.25 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1,383.74- $1,384.24 per ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $18.92 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at $1,262.26-$1,262.62 per ton (355.57-355.67 cents per gallon).
According to future predictions, the international crude oil trend will continue to be poor, with a strong wait-and-see mentality in the terminal. Some manufacturers will shut down for maintenance, resource supply will be reduced, and the favorable gasoline market is expected to drive the MTBE market atmosphere. SunSirs MTBE analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic MTBE market will mainly experience high volatility in the short term.
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