According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the mainstream average price of Petroleum coke products of major domestic local refiners in July was 1,739.00 RMB/ton on July 1 and 1,966.50 RMB/ton on July 31, with a monthly increase of 13.08%.
On July 31, the commodity index of Petroleum coke was 152.95, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.58% from the cycle's highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and up 128.66% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)
The international crude oil market fluctuated and rose in July. On the one hand, the expectation of supply tightening continued to ferment. Saudi Arabia and Russia announced new production reduction measures. In addition, the US Shale oil production has been in a bottleneck. The tightening of crude oil supply has become a major positive for the international oil market. On the other hand, there is significant support during the peak summer oil consumption season, with North America experiencing a peak in summer oil consumption. In addition, with increasing demand from China, international oil market prices continue to rise. Finally, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is nearing its end. Multiple positive factors support the sustained rise of international oil prices.
Supply side: the market of Petroleum coke produced by local refineries continued to rise in July. In July, most of the Petroleum coke stocks of the local refining enterprises were at a low level. In addition, the downstream enterprises were highly motivated to replenish, so the refinery actively pushed up the price and the deal was good. The stock of Petroleum coke in domestic ports has continued to decline. Recently, the number of imported Petroleum coke arriving at the port is low. In addition, the downstream procurement is active, and the port Petroleum coke port dredging speed is good.
On the demand side: Metal silicon prices were weak in July. In July, the resumption of production in Yunnan accelerated, and towards the end of the month, due to the impact of the Universiade, partial power restrictions were imposed in Sichuan, but the impact on metal silicon enterprises was limited. Large factories in Xinjiang are purchasing electricity from external networks, and the cost of electricity prices has increased. However, the current situation of large factories in Xinjiang is good, and small and medium-sized factories are gradually resuming production. The overall demand for metal silicon is weak, and the purchase enthusiasm for Petroleum coke is general.
In July, the Petroleum coke market of local refining continued to rise, and the calcined coke market generally rose. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan Province has been restored to 1.3 million tons, and 1.03 million tons have been completed so far in July. Due to power outsourcing and device maintenance factors, the production capacity in Sichuan Province has been reduced by about 80,000 tons. The output of Yunnan is expected to release, the production capacity is high, and the electrolytic aluminum output is expected to increase, which still has good support for the Petroleum coke market.
Future market forecast: At present, the downstream carbon enterprises continue to increase their start-up, and the terminal market is good for the Petroleum coke market. However, the price of locally refined Petroleum coke continues to rise in the early stage, and the downstream enterprises are in a strong wait-and-see mood. In addition, the downstream funds are tight at the end of the month, and Petroleum coke is mainly purchased on demand. It is expected that locally refined Petroleum coke will be stable in the near future, and some refineries will fluctuate slightly.
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