Price trend

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by SunSirs, nickel prices fluctuated and increased this week. As of July 14th, the spot nickel quotation was 173,366.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.98% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, nickel prices have risen for 6 weeks in the past 12 weeks, while have fallen for 6 weeks. Recently, nickel prices rebounded slightly.

Analysis review

On the macro level, as China's RMB exchange rate continued to rise, the highly anticipated Federal Reserve inflation data had been released. The data showed that the year-on-year increase in US CPI had continued to decline from 4% in May to 3%, lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. It had been on a downward trend for the 12th consecutive month. Affected by the cooling of US inflation, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates had weakened, the US dollar continued to decline, and the metal market had reversed and turned the tide to welcome a long-awaited surge.

In terms of supply: The newly added production capacity of domestic electrolytic nickel production had been put into operation and increased, with a month on month increase in refined nickel production in June. Two new nickel production lines were added in Indonesia in June, and Russian nickel imports continued to arrive, impacting the domestic market. Nickel iron was facing a surplus situation, and supply surplus still put pressure on nickel prices.

In terms of demand: The demand for pure nickel was differentiated in the terminal field. Maintained an overall attitude of buying stocks on dips and avoiding high prices. In terms of stainless steel, there had been a slight reduction in production due to the 300 series; Ternary precursor orders recovered, new energy and alloy demand improved, and the price of battery grade Nickel(II) sulfate rose slightly.

Market outlook

In summary, the global nickel explicit inventory was still at a historical low level, which was beneficial for nickel prices. The domestic supply side had increased, while traditional demand had weakened while new energy had increased. In the context of macroeconomic recovery both domestically and internationally, it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate to be stronger in the short term.

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