Analysis review
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by SunSirs, nickel prices rose first and then fell this week. As of April 21, the spot nickel quotation was 196,016.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.62% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 18.17%.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, nickel prices have risen in the past 12 weeks for 5 weeks and fallen in 7 weeks. Recently, nickel prices have rebounded significantly.
Market outlook
On the macro level, due to the decline in inflation data, the market expects the Federal Reserve to end its interest rate hike process and is betting on gradually starting to lower interest rates within the year. Affected by this, the metal sector collectively rose significantly, with nickel prices following suit.
On the supply side: Due to the continuous decline in nickel prices in the early stage, the production progress of some domestic electrolytic nickel production capacity has not met market expectations, and the stage of excess supply of pure nickel has not yet arrived.
In terms of demand: Although the main downstream industries such as stainless steel and power batteries have not significantly improved, traditional demand for alloys and other products still shows stable growth. Under the tight supply and demand situation, the low inventory situation in China is difficult to change in the short term.
Market outlook
In summary, nickel prices have been temporarily stabilized and rebounded due to tight supply expectations. However, with the rise of nickel prices, the profit margin for MHP or nickel sulfate production of electrowinning nickel has recovered. If the electrolytic nickel production line continues to rise significantly in the future, it will accelerate production and suppress nickel. A small portion of demand growth is insufficient to drive up nickel prices. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate widely after rebounding to a certain level.
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