Price trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, as of February 24, the prices of rebar and wire rod in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai rose first and then fell. As of the 24th, the average price of HRB400 rebar in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 4,231.11 RMB/ton, up 1.63% from the beginning of the week; the average price of HPB300 wire rod in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was 4,478 RMB/ton, up 1.63% from the beginning of the week.

Analysis review

Market: As of the weekend, the national engineering demand was 52,262 tons, down 11.9% from the previous trading day and down 32.5% from the same period last week. In 2022, the national sales volume of commercial housing was 13.33 trillion RMB and the sales area of commercial housing was 135,800 square meters, down 26.7% and 24.3% respectively year on year.

Inventory and output: This week, the weekly production of rebar and wire rod increased, the total inventory of rebar decreased, and the total inventory of wire rod increased.

In the upstream, the coke market remained stable; Port iron ore fluctuated slightly; Tthe scrap steel market partially rose. This week, close to the traditional consumption peak season and the frequent release of recent macro benefits, businesses were in a strong bullish mood. With the rapid recovery of demand, the inventory inflection point was about to appear. Near the end of the week, the transaction performance was poor. On the one hand, after the continuous increase of prices, the transaction of high-pricing resources was weak. On the other hand, due to the drag of the capital market, the speculative demand also decreased. The overall transaction was significantly lower than the previous trading day.

Market outlook

Considering that the inventory inflection point appeared and the raw material price was relatively resistant to decline, there was some support for the spot in the short term. It is expected that the price of rebar and wire rod will still be volatile and stronger.

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