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SunSirs: China Coking Coal Price Fluctuated at a High Level in the First Half of 2022 and Consolidated at a Low Level in the second half of 2022
January 20 2023 09:19:39SunSirs(Selena)

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the coking coal price rose and fell in 2022, and the price fell at the end of the year. The average market price at the beginning of the year was about 2,485 RMB/ton, and the average market price at the end of the year was 2,551.67 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 2.68%. In the first half of the year, the market remained high, while in the second half it was low

In the first quarter, it rose slightly from January to the middle of February. As the Spring Festival was approaching, some coal mines are taking holidays one after another, and the control is more severe. The overall supply of coking coal was still relatively tight. In terms of downstream coke, the expectation of the production limit of downstream steel plants near the Winter Olympics had also increased, and the price of coking coal had risen slightly. The coking coal price rose from mid-February to mid-March. As the coal mines resumed production, the supply of coking coal increased, and the market mentality of coking coal weakened due to the impact of policy; Downstream coke supply was still relatively loose as a whole. Downstream steel plants were currently purchasing on demand, most of which are based on digestion of enterprise inventory.

In the second quarter, coking coal prices rose slightly in the first ten days of April. The origin was still affected by public health events, and transportation was still affected, but there was still a demand for replenishment in the downstream, and the market mentality was acceptable; The inventory of coking coal in downstream coke was now at a normal level, and the demand for coking coal from coke was acceptable. From April to the middle of June, the price of coking coal decreased slightly. Due to the environmental protection inspection, the production of coking coal was low, the downstream demand was general, and the shipment was general. The second round of increase and decrease in the downstream coke was started, and the enterprise profits were reduced. The raw material procurement was more cautious, and the price was depressed.

In the third quarter, the coking coal price fell from July to the first ten days of August, and the coke market in the downstream coke market was generally weak. From late August to the end of September, the price was relatively consolidated. The Spring Festival focused on safety production, and coking coal supply will be tightened. The inventory in the plant was low. In terms of demand, with the end of winter storage in steel mills, steel mills mainly purchased coke on demand.

In the fourth quarter, coking coal prices rose first, then fell and then rose. The price rise in the first ten days of October was mainly due to the high and stable level of the recent commencement of steel works, the overall demand for coke was relatively stable, and the demand for coke was still in stock. From the end of October to the middle of November, the price fell, because of the impact of transportation, epidemic and safety, which had a certain impact on the overall output of coking coal. In addition, under the influence of public events, the recent shipment of enterprises is average. In terms of coke, the overall market mentality is weak. Coke steel has a strong game mentality, and under the situation of weak supply and demand, the price of coke is mainly stable and weak in the short term. The price of coking coal rose from the end of November to the end of the year, mainly because the coal mine safety production was the main factor and the overall supply of coking coal was relatively tight. In addition, due to force majeure, it is difficult to transport goods in some areas. In terms of coke, after entering December, the fourth round of increase in the coke market fell to the ground, and has been increased for four times, up 400-440 RMB/ton. At present, the coking market is in a good mood, the coking operation rate has increased slightly, the coking enterprises are in a good shipping situation, the enterprises are actively shipping, and the inventory in the factory is running at a low level.

According to SunSirs coking coal analysts of the Business Society, the atmosphere of coking coal delivery and investment is general, some coal mines adjust their prices, and the demand for coking coal in the downstream coke sector is general in the near future. The Spring Festival is approaching, and the stock is nearing the end. The coking coal is mainly purchased on demand, and the overall view of coking coal price consolidation is the main. In 2023, the overall supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and with the warming of the weather after the year, the number of starting enterprises will increase, and the supply will increase. In addition, the overall demand for coking coal in the downstream coke is maintained, and the strength of winter storage and replenishment is not large. After the completion of winter storage in the later period, the price of coking coal in 2023 may not be optimistic, and the overall price may rise first and then fall.


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