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SunSirs: Cement Market in East China Lowered in 2022
January 12 2023 14:02:10SunSirs(Selena)

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the cement market in East China in 2022 fell sharply. The price at the beginning of the year was 565.00 RMB/ton, and the price at the end of the year was 391.00 RMB/ton, down 30.80%. The lowest point was 382.00 RMB/ton at the end of July. The highest point was at the beginning of the year, from the beginning of the year to the lowest point in July, with an annual comprehensive decline of 32.39%.

In 2022, the cement market generally showed a downward trend. From the figure above, it can be seen that the cement market rose in four months and fell in six months. Among them, the largest increase was in February, with an increase of 4.57%, and the largest decline was in May and June, with 9.88%. The annual decline was significant and the increase was small. Compared with previous years, the increase in spring was not obvious, while the rise in autumn was weak, and the market fell sharply throughout the year.

Looking at the trend chart of petroleum coke market in 2022, we can see that the price at the beginning of 2022 was 2,081.25 RMB/ton, and the price at the end of 2022 was 2,689.00 RMB/ton, down 4.01%. The highest point of the year was 5,254.75 RMB/ton on May 11, an increase of 87.83% over the beginning of the year, and the lowest point was 2,614.00 RMB/ton on December 28, with a maximum drop of 50.25%. In terms of cost, the price of petroleum coke rose first and then fell. The reason for the rise in January-May was the sharp rise in the price of international crude oil, the increase in the cost of petroleum coke in refineries, combined with the impact of the Paralympic Games and environmental protection, the reduction of production in some refineries, the reduction of production in some refineries, and the low inventory in refineries. The reason for the decline from June to December is that due to the impact of public security events, the refinery's shipment was poor, and the inventory was high. In order to reduce the price of the refinery's shipment, the market continued to decline. The petroleum coke market is generally at a low level, giving little support to the cement cost.

Downstream: In 2022, the real estate market continues to cool, and the local auction group is cold, which is difficult to provide strong support for the cement market. According to the data of the Bureau of Statistics, from January to November, the national real estate development investment was 12,386.3 billion RMB, down 9.8% year on year; Among them, residential investment was 9,401.6 billion RMB, down 9.2%. From January to November 2022, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 1.21 billion square meters, down 23.3% year on year, and the sales volume of commercial housing was 11.9 trillion RMB, down 26.6% year on year. From January to November 2022, the newly constructed area of housing nationwide was 1.12 billion square meters, down 38.9% year on year. The newly constructed area of a single month has dropped by more than 35% year on year for eight consecutive months since April. The sluggish real estate market is the main reason for the poor demand for cement.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the cement output in January-November 2022 was 1,950.1 million tons, down 10.8% year on year. The cement output in November was 191.72 million tons, down 4.7% year on year and 5.9% month on month. In 2022, cement production hit a new low in nearly 11 years. The company's benefits also fell sharply in 2021. In January-November 2022, infrastructure investment increased by 8.9% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points faster than January-October, and picked up for seven consecutive months. In the coming 2023, with the opening of the infrastructure pull effect, the upstream real estate industry will gradually recover, and the cement demand is expected to increase. It is only a matter of time before the market boom recovers.

Looking forward to 2023, the global economic growth will slow down, and the situation of the construction industry is not optimistic. In the short term, as the holiday approaches and the construction site is about to shut down, the demand for cement is unlikely to improve. Therefore, SunSirs cement product analysts believe that China cement market will mainly fall slightly in a short time.

 

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