Analysis review

Considering the PX products in 2022, the total capacity of PX in China was 38.385 million tons, and the domestic new capacity was 9.57 million tons. Domestic production capacity rose and domestic supply increased. The annual operating rate of PX was about 680%, and the annual output was expected to be about 26.1 million tons. The domestic spot supply of PX was still insufficient, and the domestic PX still had a high degree of dependence on foreign countries, which made the domestic pricing of PX greatly affected by foreign countries. In 2022, there was more new capacity, and the domestic market price of PX rose, but the profit of PX products turned from negative to positive in 2022

There are two PX production processes, one is naphtha as the main raw material, the other is MX as the main raw material. In 2022, the profit of PX production with naphtha as raw material changed from negative to positive, but the profit of PX production with MX as raw material remained negative, and the annual average profit was 40 US dollars/ton.

The price of crude oil is one of the important factors affecting the price trend of the domestic PX market. In 2022, the international crude oil performance rose as a whole, the supply was tightened and the demand recovered. The rising price was the main theme. Affected by the trend of crude oil, the PX price also showed an inverted "V" trend.

97% of PX in China is used to produce PTA. According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price trend of PX and PTA in the whole year was quite close. The price trend of PX and PTA in the domestic market had risen, but the processing cost had risen, and some PTA manufacturers were still in the loss stage.

In 2023, domestic PX will still have new production capacity, and domestic supply will increase greatly.

Market outlook

The PX analysts of SunSirs believe that in 2023, there will be great pressure on the price rise of the Asian PX market. With the overcapacity of the Asian PX market, the trend of weak prices in the Asian PX market will become clearer, and the pressure will be huge. It can be seen from the monitoring data of SunSirs that the domestic new capacity will still increase in 2023, and the supply will continue to rise. Although the domestic PTA enterprises will still have new devices put into production next year, and the demand will increase, the PX new capacity will be larger, the PX self-sufficiency rate will gradually increase, the domestic import volume will significantly reduce, and the domestic supply and demand will improve. However, the overall supply of PX in Asia has been oversupplied, and Japan, South Korea and other major PX exporting countries are under great pressure. It is very likely that the PX market will maintain a low profit era in 2023, because it is likely to sell to domestic enterprises at a profit margin. In 2023, the oil market will not only face the macro pressure, the restriction of the economic recession cycle, but also the game between the supply and demand sides. On the supply side, there are risks of Russian production decline and OEPC+ production reduction. On the demand side, the macro cycle suppresses, the supply and demand depressed, and the demand growth in Asia also supports. The oil market is subject to macro and micro multi empty influence, so it is more likely to maintain a wide range of shocks. Influenced by the trend of international crude oil price, the average price of domestic PX market is about 8,500 RMB/ton. It is expected that the domestic high price will appear in the spring sales peak season of textiles, and the domestic market price of PX will be 9,500 RMB/ton. However, with the continuous release of new domestic production capacity, it is expected that the domestic low price will also be about 6,000 RMB/ton.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.