Price trend
According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price trend of the domestic PX market in 2022 showed an inverted "V" trend, and the overall price trend rose. The average price at the beginning of the year was 6,700 RMB/ton, the average price at the end of the year was 7,450 RMB/ton, and the annual increase was 11.19%. It can be seen from the price trend chart that the highest point of domestic PX price appeared in June, the highest price was 10,900 RMB/ton, and the lowest point of annual price appeared at the beginning of the year, the lowest price was 6,700 RMB/ton. Overall, the price trend of domestic PX market rose, and the price trend of PX market was affected by both domestic and foreign factors.
Review of PX market in 2022
In 2022, the total production capacity of PX in China was 38.385 million tons, and the new domestic capacity was 9.57 million tons. However, the annual operating rate was about 680%, and the total output was about 26.1 million tons. However, in 2022, the total import volume ws about 10.64 million tons. On the whole, the external dependence of PX decreased. In 2022, the external dependence was 29%. The production of new domestic devices led to a sharp increase in the self-sufficiency rate of PX in China, which had risen to 71% compared with 62% in 2021. However, the price of PX external market was also the most important factor affecting the price of domestic PX market.
According to the annual domestic market price trend chart and PX external market price trend chart, the PX market price trend can be divided into two stages: the first stage was the first half of the year, when the PX market price trend rose significantly; The second stage was the second half of the year, when the price trend of PX market fell back.
The first stage is the first half of the year. The price trend of the domestic PX market rose sharply.
The domestic price increased by 62.69% from 6,700 RMB/ton to 10,900 RMB/ton in the first half of the year. From the perspective of product supply, in the first half of 2022, few new units were put into production in China. In addition, the unexpected shutdown of units in some parts of Asia resulted in tight supply of PX in China, and the price of PX rose. In terms of cost, the price of crude oil rose sharply in the first half of the year. The price of crude oil once rose from 75 US dollars/barrel to 125 US dollars/barrel. The sharp rise of crude oil price was a major positive support for the PX market. The price trend of the downstream PTA market rose sharply, and the PTA market price rose from 4,960 RMB/ton to 7,720 RMB/ton, up 55.57%. During this period, the economy continued to recover, the operating rate of the textile industry rose gradually, and the demand for the upstream increased, leading to a sharp rise in the prices of PX and PTA products.
The second stage is the second half of the year. The price trend of PX market fell back.
The domestic market price dropped from 10,900 RMB/ton to 7,450 RMB/ton, a drop of 31.65%. The production capacity of newly put into production units in China was 9.57 million tons, and most of the production capacity could normally output products in the second half of the year. The domestic supply had increased significantly. In addition, due to the gradual start-up of parking devices in Asia, the supply was sufficient, leading to a sharp decline in PX prices. The crude oil price dropped from 125 US dollars/barrel to about 75 US dollars/barrel. The sharp decline in crude oil price was a negative factor for PX. In addition, the downstream PTA and polyester market declined significantly, and the PTA price fell from 7,740 RMB/ton to 5,610 RMB/ton, a decline of 24.41%. The demand for PX procurement was general, the terminal textile industry was depressed, and the negative factors were superimposed. At this stage, the PX market price fell significantly.
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