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SunSirs: Weak Operation of China Domestic Soybean Market in 2022
December 29 2022 11:13:11SunSirs(Selena)

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, in 2022, the domestic soybean market will not perform well. The price of soybean in the new season will fall significantly compared with that of old soybean, and the market will continue to be weak. At the beginning of the year, the average price of domestic soybean market was 6,070 RMB/ton. On December 27, the average price of domestic soybean market was 5,600 RMB/ton, down 7.74%.

The domestic soybean market in 2022 can be mainly divided into three stages: the first stage: January April, a weak oscillation period; The second stage: May August, high level oscillation period; The third stage: September to December, a period of continuous decline.

The first stage: after New Year's Day, the supply of domestic soybeans became tight, farmers were reluctant to sell, the National Reserve lowered the purchase price as a whole, and the market of domestic soybeans was dominated by weak fluctuations. During the Spring Festival, the foreign soybean market rose, while the domestic soybean market rose. Due to the caution of the acquirer, the domestic soybean market remained stable. After March, the auction of national reserve soybeans continued, the logistics and transportation were blocked, and the domestic soybean market was still weak as a whole until April. At the beginning of January, the average price of domestic soybean market was 6,070 RMB/ton. On April 30, the average price of domestic soybean market was 6,044 RMB/ton, down 0.43%.

The second stage: after the May Day holiday, the spring sowing was delayed, and there were few new beans left. In addition, with the approaching of spring ploughing, farmers had no time to sell beans, and the supply of soybeans in the main production areas became tight, ushering in an upsurge. Since June, the auction of national reserve soybeans has been successful, and the price has remained high. After July, the demand for terminal soybean products continued to decline, and the domestic soybean market weakened. In August, the domestic soybean market recovered, and the auction of the national reserve soybean was successful. Support the domestic soybean market. At the beginning of May, the average price of domestic soybean market was 6,044 RMB/ton. On August 31, the average price of domestic soybean market was 6,190 RMB/ton, up 2.42%.

The third stage: at the beginning of September, due to the coming of new season soybeans, the market acquirers were cautious in entering the market, the demand for terminal soybean products was stable, and the purchase and sales of domestic soybean market were relatively cold. After Double 11 Festival, new season soybeans were listed in full, and the market purchase and sales were cold. Some national storages were listed for purchase, with prices ranging from 2.85-2.92 RMB/500g. The quotation details of new beans are lower than those of old beans, and the domestic soybean market is weak. After November, the demand for terminal soybean products was flat, and the domestic soybean market continued to decline in a weak way until the end of the year. At the beginning of September, the average price of domestic soybean market was 6,190 RMB/ton. On December 27, the domestic soybean market was 5,600 RMB/ton, a decline of 9.53%.

SunSirs agricultural product analyst of SunSirs, believes that the domestic soybean market will not perform well in 2022, and the overall weakness is mainly due to the poor demand for end soybean products. In 2023, the demand for end soybean products is expected to get better, the supply will become tighter, farmers will pay high prices, and the purchase price of national storage is expected to rise. The domestic soybean market in 2023 may be better than that in 2022.

 

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