According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal is weak last week. On December 25, the energy index was 1,094 points, unchanged from yesterday, 29.92% lower than the highest point of 1,561 points (2021-10-21) in the cycle, and 114.09% higher than the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)
In terms of origin, the price of thermal coal is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is general. The market sentiment is weak, mainly focusing on ensuring supply and long-term coal cooperation. The overall supply and demand of the market are weak, and the overall downstream demand for thermal coal is limited. The market as a whole has a strong wait-and-see mood, and Duowei mainly focuses on rigid demand procurement.
In terms of downstream ports, the port price is weak, the overall trading volume of the market is average, and the enthusiasm for taking goods from downstream is average, so there are few deals. The end users' demand for thermal coal is limited as a whole, and they mainly take a wait-and-see attitude. The overall market is weak.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on December 14, the national coal price rose in early December. The specific price changes of various coals are as follows: the price of anthracite (washed block, volatile matter≤8%) is 1,927.1 RMB/ton, up 22.1 RMB/ton or 1.2% compared with the previous period. The price of ordinary blended coal (blended coal of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal, calorific value 4,500 kcal) is 1,014.3 RMB/ton, up 56.8 RMB/ton or 5.9% over the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dahun (blended coal with good quality and calorific value of 5,000 kcal) was 1,181.4 RMB/ton, up 56.4 RMB/ton or 5.0% compared with the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youhun (high-quality blended coal with calorific value of 5,500 kcal) was 1,362.9 RMB/ton, up 41.6 RMB/ton or 3.1% compared with the previous period. The price of coking coal (main coking coal, sulfur content<1%) was 2,353.6 RMB/ton, up 78.6 RMB/ton or 3.5% over the previous period.
Analysts from SunSirs believe that the overall sentiment of thermal coal in the production area is average, and the market transaction is average. In terms of downstream ports, the downstream is still mainly wait-and-see for thermal coal, the purchase enthusiasm of power plants is average, the supply and demand game, and the overall market is weak. It is comprehensively predicted that the thermal coal price will be dominated by weak operation in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.
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