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SunSirs: Energy, Downward Trend of Domestic Petroleum Coke in November

December 04 2019 11:59:03     SunSirs (Selena)

  1. Price Data

According to the data of SunSirs, in November, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refineries was 1,155.75 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 980.00 RMB/ton at the end of the month, down 175.75 RMB/ton in the month, up and down 15.21% in the month. In November, the ground refined petroleum coke extended the downward trend as October.

On November 29, the petroleum coke commodity index was 76.22, unchanged from the previous day, down 51.01% from 155.59 (January 25, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 13.95% from 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

  1. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: in November, the downward trend of refined petroleum coke continued, the impact of environmental protection and heating season, the lower purchasing sentiment was not high, the refinery continued to give profits to stimulate shipment, and the overall trading was general. The price of ground refined petroleum coke fell by 50-150 RMB/ton last month.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil at the beginning of the month was $54.18 /barrel, at the end of the month is $55.17 /barrel, with a monthly increase or decrease of 1.83%; Brent crude oil at the beginning of the month is $60.23 / barrel, at the end of the month is $62.43 / barrel, with a monthly increase or decrease of 3.65%. In November, the international crude oil fluctuated upward. At the beginning of the month, the market was optimistic about the Sino US trade and it was reported that OPEC would consider extending the current production reduction agreement at the December meeting to provide some support. However, the demand for crude oil in the United States did not improve in the month, which hindered the rise of crude oil. Downstream: due to the impact of environmental protection policies, some coking enterprises in Shandong and Hebei were shut down. The market demand for calcined coke and electrolytic aluminum was general, the enthusiasm of carbon enterprises for raw material procurement was not high, and the downstream demand was general. In November, the price of domestic standard aluminum ingots was stable. According to the data of SunSirs, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market as of November 29 was 14,010 RMB/ ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in November 2019, there were seven commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which there was one commodity increased more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the energy sector; the top 3 commodities were MTBE (5.70%), Brent crude oil (3.65%) and gasoline (2.43%). There were eight commodities falling on a month on month basis, among which there were two commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling were petroleum coke (- 15.21%), dimethyl ether (- 7.43%), coking coal (- 3.74%). Last month's average rise and fall was - 0.99%.

  1. Market Forecast

The petroleum coke analyst of SunSirs predicted that due to the impact of environmental protection, heating season and other factors, the downstream demand is limited, and it is expected that the downward trend of petroleum coke will continue in December, with the price range of 800-1,000 RMB/ton.

 

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