SunSirs: China Petroleum Coke Market Prices from Independent Refineries Rose Then Fell in August

According to the SunSirs commodity analysis system, the market for petroleum coke from independent refineries saw prices rise and then fall in August, trending downward overall. On August 31, the average market price for medium-sulfur petroleum coke from major domestic independent refineries was 3,245.75 RMB/ton, down 1.96% from the 3,310.75 RMB/ton recorded on August 1.

Cost Side: International crude oil prices experienced wide fluctuations in August. Early in the month, prices dropped rapidly as the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East temporarily subsided. However, prices surged during the first half of the month; a 60-day memorandum of understanding regarding the US-Iran conflict expired without renewal by either party, and negotiations collapsed completely due to disagreements over control of the Strait of Hormuz, dashing market hopes for a de-escalation. Later in the month, prices retreated slightly as geopolitical tensions eased, though the overall trend for the month remained upward.

Supply Side: In early August, some independent refinery units remained under maintenance, limiting petroleum coke output; refinery inventories stayed low, and spot supplies were tight. As maintenance units gradually resumed production, the operating rate of delayed coking units rose in the latter half of the month, increasing the supply of domestic petroleum coke. This, combined with a concentrated influx of imported coke, gradually created pressure on spot supplies. Additionally, some refineries adjusted petroleum coke prices significantly based on product specifications. While there were concentrated arrivals of imported petroleum coke, overall port inventories decreased as the destocking trend continued.

Demand Side: Pre-baked anodes, the largest downstream consumer of petroleum coke, saw their benchmark procurement price in the Shandong region decline in August. Electrolytic aluminum capacity remained stable, and demand for aluminum-grade carbon products is expected to hold steady, with downstream buyers primarily purchasing on an as-needed basis. The anode material industry maintained high operating rates, supporting the price of low-sulfur petroleum coke; planned expansions in pre-baked anode capacity may boost demand for petroleum coke procurement. Market Outlook: Operating rates at independent refineries' coking units remain high; domestic petroleum coke supplies are ample, and imported cargoes continue to arrive, maintaining overall supply pressure. Downstream sectors—specifically carbon and pre-baked anode producers—are limiting purchases to essential needs, with little incentive for large-scale restocking, and there is no significant growth in fuel demand. However, the upward adjustment of the September benchmark purchase price for pre-baked anodes provides support to the petroleum coke market; consequently, the market is expected to undergo a period of consolidation with fluctuating prices in the short term.

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