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SunSirs: Negative Factors Combined, Polyester FDY Mainly Swings Lower

November 29 2019 14:11:28     SunSirs (Linda)

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in November, the domestic polyester FDY market fell first and then rose in a ‘V’ trend, hitting a new low in the middle of November and then rebounded. Polyester POY rose slightly this month. As of November 28, the average market price of polyester POY (150D/48F) was 7,044RMB/tton, up 0.14% from the beginning of the month, down 18.35% year on year.

Product

Nov 1

Nov 29

Month on month

Year on year

polyester POY(150D/48F)

7,034

7,044

0.14%

-18.35%

polyester FDY(150D/96F)

7,323

7,206

-1.59%

-22.45%

polyester DTY(150D/48F low-elastic)

8,813

8,676

-1.56%

-18.39%

The cost support is insufficient, downstream fueling is faced with capital shortage, terminal textile orders shrink and other difficulties, polyester FDY price fell continuously, and then with the increase of raw materials, as well as profit loss, the factory began to reduce production, overhaul situation, strong will to pull up, price into the upper channel.

In terms of raw material PTA, as of November 28, the average market price of PTA in China was 4,800RMB/ton, down 2.48% from the beginning of the month, down 23.52% year on year. At the beginning of the month, the new PTA capacity of Dushan energy was put into production as scheduled, but the PTA price decline slowed down due to the support of some plant maintenance plans and tight supply side supply. With the restart of PTA maintenance enterprises, prices accelerated to fall and hit a new low within the year on December 12. After that, liquidity spot tightened again and the price rebounded. However, another 1.1 million tons of line of Dushan energy was put into operation smoothly, and the supplier ended the buyback, resulting in another shock and fall in PTA.

Changes in domestic mainstream PTA plants in November

Enterprwase Name

Device Capacity

Device’s Recent Change

Jiaxing Petrochemicals

150

Nov 12, in shutdown and overhaul for 2 weeks

Ningbo Taihua

120

Nov 13, in a short shutdown due to faults

Shanghai Yadong

70

Nov 13, in shutdown, the device has been heated up and restarted, and the material has been discharged

Hanbang Petrochemical

220

Load reduction to 90% operation

Chuanneng

100

In a short shutdown on Nov 1, 80% load now

Jialong Petrochemical

60

In shutdown and overhaul (Aug 2); Restart to be determined

Hailun Petrochemicals

120

Overhaul in Dec

Yisheng Hainan

200

It has been gradually warmed up and restarted, and the device was shut down for maintenance on November 22.

 

On the demand side, at present, the new orders of terminal weaving factories are relatively common, the inventory pressure of weaving finished products is still there, coupled with the limited support of raw material market and multiple negative drag, the downstream and terminal factories keep the rigid demand for replenishment, and take measures to reduce the load and avoid risks. At the same time, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms rebounded after the National Day holiday, and the market confidence was insufficient, so the purchasing was cautious.

 

An analyst from SunSIRS believes that at present, the new production of the raw material market is relatively concentrated, PTA supply will gradually accumulate, and there is an expectation of production reduction in the downstream polyester, under this influence, PTA is expected to enter a weak consolidation pattern. After entering the fourth quarter, terminal demand continued to be weak, and the phenomenon of selling goods continued under the background of high finished product inventory of textile enterprises, and some factories said that they would stop early at the end of the year. Due to the lack of new orders from the factory, it is expected that the startup rate of weaving factory will decline further in the later stage. At this time, it is less than two months before the Spring Festival. In the later stage, it is also necessary to pay attention to the nodes of centralized replenishment of downstream and terminal factories before the festival. On the whole, the negative factors are superimposed, and it is expected that the polyester FDY market will fluctuate and fall in December.

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