SunSirs: Polyester Filament Traded Sideways at High Levels with Narrow Fluctuations Last Week (March 23–27)

Price trend

According to price data from SunSirs, the price trends for polyester filament last week (March 23–27) were as follows (based on mainstream prices in East China, in RMB/ton):

POY 150D/48F: Fluctuated mid-week → Settled at 8,800–9,200 RMB/ton on Friday; remained stable compared to the previous week.

FDY 150D/96F: Declined mid-week → Settled at 9,300–9,600 RMB/ton on Friday; fell by 0.27% compared to the previous week.

DTY 150D/48F: Declined mid-week → Settled at 10,300–10,800 RMB/ton on Friday; fell by 1.85% compared to the previous week.

Overall: Prices traded sideways at high levels, exhibiting narrow fluctuations and stabilizing with divergent movements; no distinct unidirectional trend was observed.

Market analysis

I. Cost Side: Strong Support but Converging Volatility—Driving Market Momentum

Last week, polyester filament prices were driven entirely by upstream costs. Recurrent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered sharp volatility in international crude oil markets, which directly caused wide price fluctuations in PTA and MEG, the effects of which subsequently cascaded into the polyester filament market. With crude oil prices swinging by over $3 per barrel in a single day—and PTA and MEG prices fluctuating by more than 200 RMB/ton—polyester filament prices moved in tandem; however, the magnitude of these fluctuations was noticeably more subdued compared to previous periods. As upstream costs remained persistently high, they provided a solid floor of support for polyester filament prices. Meanwhile, processing margins for manufacturers continued to be squeezed, leaving most factories operating at a break-even point or incurring slight losses; this situation had instilled a strong resolve among enterprises to hold firm on pricing, making any significant price pullback unlikely.

II. Supply Side: Proactive Contraction + Low Inventory Levels Supported Elevated Prices

The supply side served as a crucial factor in stabilizing prices at elevated levels last week. Driven by high production costs and razor-thin profit margins, leading polyester filament manufacturers continued to implement production reduction plans; consequently, the industry-wide operating rate had remained at a low range of 75%–80%, while some small-to-medium-sized facilities had further scaled back operations or shut down entirely due to financial losses. Concurrently, the pace of new capacity additions scheduled for 2026 had slowed markedly, as the commissioning of several planned facilities had been delayed due to adverse market conditions and cost pressures, thereby significantly alleviating overall supply-side pressure within the industry. Furthermore—bolstered by the substantial inventory reduction efforts undertaken previously—polyester filament factory inventories currently sit at historically low levels; specifically, POY inventory stood at a mere 10–12 days' supply, falling far below the typical equilibrium range of 20–25 days. Amidst this state of low inventory, manufacturers maintained a steady and composed mindset regarding shipments, facing no pressure to offload stock at discounted prices—a factor that provided robust support for sustaining prices at their current high levels.

III. Demand Side: Essential demand remained stable but showed resistance to high prices, limiting upside potential

Weak performance on the demand side had emerged as the primary constraint on price appreciation. Although the downstream weaving sector was temporarily in its traditional peak season—with steady essential purchasing and loom operating rates holding between 50% and 55%—downstream enterprises exhibited significant resistance to the elevated prices of polyester filament and upstream raw materials. Consequently, they had generally adopted a cautious strategy of "buying on demand and purchasing as needed," refraining from large-scale speculative buying or inventory replenishment. Actual market transaction volumes remained sluggish, with the production-to-sales ratio hovering merely within the 60%–80% range. Insufficient follow-through on orders from downstream fabric and apparel manufacturers—coupled with their limited tolerance for high-priced raw materials—continued to stifle the upward momentum of polyester filament prices; this had resulted in prices retreating rapidly after brief surges, making it difficult for a sustained, unidirectional upward trend to take shape.

IV. Sentiment and Capital Flows: Cautious Stance, Bull-Bear Equilibrium, Heightened Volatility

Overall market sentiment remained cautious and wait-and-see, with a distinct divergence between bullish and bearish views. Bullish participants anticipate price resilience, citing factors such as elevated production costs, tightening supply, and low inventory levels; conversely, bearish participants foresee limited upside potential, pointing to weak demand, resistance from downstream sectors, and the dampening effect of high prices on transaction volumes. Traders were primarily adopting a strategy of rapid turnover and maintaining light positions, refraining from significant stockpiling; meanwhile, downstream manufacturers continued to monitor raw material price trends closely and remained reluctant to increase their inventory levels prematurely. With limited capital inflow into the market and a lack of clear directional guidance, the price of polyester filament yarn had become even more volatile, settling into a broader market pattern characterized by "cost-driven support at the bottom, demand-side pressure from above, and high-level price oscillation."

Market outlook

Trend: Predominantly high-level consolidation; continues to track fluctuations in crude oil and PTA/MEG markets.

Support Factors: Geopolitical risks, elevated production costs, tightening supply, and low inventory levels.

Pressure Factors: Downstream resistance to high prices, insufficient rigid demand, and sluggish trading activity.

Key Focus Areas: The situation in the Middle East, crude oil price trends, PTA/MEG pricing, operating rates and inventory levels for filament yarn, and the pace of downstream procurement.

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