SunSirs: Demand weakened, ABS market fell

According to the bulk list data of SunSirs, the domestic ABS market fell last week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of April 24, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 14700 RMB/ton, up or down - 1.34% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong rose last week. Pure benzene market continued to rise. The market is bullish on crude oil prices, driving the rise of pure benzene on the cost side. Styrene followed. Overall, if the raw materials rise next week, the styrene market will follow the rise.

The market of acrylonitrile fell last week. In terms of supply, the on-site spot goods were reduced due to the maintenance of some enterprises in the early stage. At present, the supply of goods is relatively abundant, and the support of the supply side to the spot goods is limited. Downstream demand performance is general, superimposed with the impact of health events on transportation, and the ex factory price of spot is under pressure.

Last week, the domestic butadiene market rebounded slightly and rose. There was no significant increase in the market supply during the week, and the amount of cash in circulation was slightly tight. In addition, as the holiday is approaching, there is a pre holiday stock demand in some downstream, which has a certain support on the demand side. It is expected that the downstream retail investors still have a certain pre holiday stock demand in this cycle, which may support the spot market.

Last week, the overall support of three materials upstream of ABS cost side was general. In terms of industry load, some domestic production lines began to be overhauled in the early stage, and the operating rate of ABS enterprises has decreased slightly. However, the mentality of manufacturers is not strong. China's health events still have a great impact on some parts of East China. Logistics and production are affected, suppressing a certain amount of demand. The goods are not smooth in the field, and the offer falls. The situation in Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe has become increasingly tense, resulting in the closure of many oil fields and the rise of crude oil. However, the transmission effect of price to ABS industrial chain is general, and the market differences are large. At present, the main bad news in the market is the shrinking demand caused by the impact of health events on the downstream load.

Future forecast:

SunSirs analysts believe that the spot market of ABS fell last week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials is weak, which is difficult to form a strong support for the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot supply is temporarily abundant, and the load of ABS enterprises is lower than that in the early stage. The demand follow-up contracted due to the impact of transportation. I heard that the shipment is about to improve. It is expected that the ABS spot market may stop falling and rebound with the improvement of freight transportation in the short term.

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