SunSirs: Methanol Market is on the Decline

1. Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market is declining. As of November 12, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2,134 RMB/ ton. Prices fell 10.79% month on month and 24.19% year on year.

2. Market Analysis

Product: the domestic methanol market shows a downward trend, and the mainland and ports have declined to varying degrees. The port continued to be weak in the day, the futures market kept prices down, and spot buying maintained rigid demand. On the mainland market, the wait-and-see mentality was obvious at the beginning of the week. Some enterprises haven't adjusted their prices yet, and the prices fall down due to poor trading in some regions. It is reported that the port price is low, and some goods flow back to Shandong, which to some extent suppresses the trend of the mainland market. In addition, the northwest guidance price has been lowered this week, so we need to pay attention to the transmission to the mainland market.

In terms of freight: the domestic methanol freight has been rising and falling, which has been sorted out recently. The freight from the northern Inner Mongolia line to Lubei is 180-240 RMB/ ton; the freight from the southern line to Lubei is 170-210 RMB/ ton; the freight from Guanzhong to Lubei is 130-170 RMB/ ton, the freight from Guanzhong to southwest of Shandong is 180-200 RMB/ ton; the freight from Shanxi to Lubei is 110-150 RMB/ ton; the freight from Xinjiang to Lubei is 600 RMB/ ton.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: Recently, due to limited production due to haze in Shandong formaldehyde market, the trading atmosphere is weak. Among them, the price of Linyi and its surrounding areas is 1,020-1,500 RMB/ ton, the high-end price is in Zibo, and the low-end price is below 1,000 RMB/ ton.

Acetic acid: the domestic glacial acetic acid market was stable at the beginning of the week. After last week's low price shipment, downstream staged replenishment, the overall inventory of glacial acetic acid enterprises decreased, so the offer is temporarily stable. The downstream market is just in demand and the purchase intention is stable. More attention has been paid to the small devices and export negotiations in Nanjing.

Dimethyl ether: the market of dimethyl ether has gradually stabilized, the seller has a certain willingness to support the market, and the downstream purchases on demand. At present, the demand has not improved significantly, and the short-term stability is partially weak.

3. Market Forecast

SunSirs’ view: on the positive side, cost: it is reported that the price of LNG continues to rise in the near future, and the methanol cost in southwest and other places can still be supported. In terms of negative side, port: at present, the port continues to fall under the drive of futures, the port market price is low, some of the spot flows back to Shandong and other places, which to some extent suppresses the mainland market; demand: at present, the traditional downstream demand remains weak, and part of it is affected by environmental protection factors, some of the downstream starts are low, and the demand further weakens; main production area: the northwest guidance price has dropped significantly, which will affect the mainland market in the short term; port inventory: the subsequent import volume remains high, and the port delivery speed slows down, so the short-term port inventory may still increase. The methanol analysts of the business association predict that the short-term domestic methanol market is dominated by differential finishing, with partial or continuous decline.

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