SunSirs: In May, the Domestic Methanol Market Fell Mainly

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market was weak and fell. From May 1 to 30 (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of domestic methanol market in East China ports fell from 2,440 RMB/ton to 2,245 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 7.99% during the period, a maximum amplitude of 10.96%, and a year-on-year price drop of 19.82%.

In early May, the domestic methanol market fell mainly. Domestic methanol production and supply are at a high level, and the import supply has increased beyond expectations. The market confidence is insufficient, which has suppressed the market, and the domestic methanol market has fallen mainly.

In mid-May, the domestic methanol market rose mainly. Boosted by macroeconomic benefits, coupled with the shutdown of some devices in the main methanol market in the Middle East, the market sentiment is positive, and the domestic methanol market is mainly upward overall, but the downstream is resistant to high prices after the rise.

In late May, the domestic methanol market fell mainly. From a fundamental perspective, due to the expectation of incremental supply, the market is under strong pressure and lacks confidence. Therefore, although there is some support from downstream external procurement and downstream device startup, the support is weak at present, and the domestic methanol market is under downward pressure.

As of the close of May 30, the closing price of methanol futures at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract 2509 opened at 2220 RMB/ton, the highest price was 2221 RMB/ton, the lowest price was 2195 RMB/ton, and the closing price was 2208 RMB/ton, up 7 from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.32%. The trading volume was 701,459 lots, the open interest was 824,339 lots, and the daily increase was -25,077.

As of May 30, the market price of methanol in various regions is summarized as follows:

On the cost side, the thermal coal market has been running weakly and steadily recently. Most coal mines in the main production areas maintain normal production rhythm, and the market coal supply is still at a high level. The cost side of methanol is affected by negative factors.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: Henan Longyu and Celanese both have maintenance plans, Hebei Jiantao and Hubei Qianxin continue to increase their loads, and the demand for acetic acid may decrease; downstream chloride Shandong Huatai and Jiangsu Fuqiang units are all running at reduced loads, and the demand for chlorides has decreased; MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether industries have no clear plans to start, stop, or reduce loads, and the demand for methanol has not fluctuated much. Most downstream demand for methanol has decreased, and the demand side of methanol is affected by negative factors.

On the supply side, Xinjiang Xinye's equipment was overhauled; Xinjiang Guanghui and Jingmen Yingde's equipment reduced production; Hubei Sanning, Inner Mongolia Hebaitai, Sichuan Daxing's equipment resumed production. The overall loss was greater than the recovery, and the capacity utilization rate fell. The methanol supply side was affected by favorable factors.

On the foreign market, as of the close of May 29, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at US$326.50-327.50/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 78.00-79.00 cents/gallon; the closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 253.50-254.50 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.

Market outlook: Factory operation continues to fluctuate at a high level, and there is a demand for shipment in the short term; the traditional downstream operation is limited, and purchases are mainly based on rigid demand. Methanol analysts at SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol spot market will be mainly weak.

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