Shanghai Nickel Meets Resistance up, Inventory Remains Low

Internal and external trends: LME nickel fell slightly on Tuesday. As of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month LME nickel was reported at US$17,805/ton, a daily decline of 0.70%. Shanghai Nickel's main 2107 contract encountered obstacles in the uptrend, the highest within the day was 13,1990 yuan/ton, the lowest was 129210 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,080 yuan/ton, which was 0.42% higher than the closing price of the previous trading day; the trading volume was 415,027 hands, and the daily decrease was 22,866; 111,659 hands, a daily reduction of 6616 hands. The basis difference is 1470 yuan/ton; the monthly price difference of Shanghai nickel 2107-2108 is 160 yuan/ton.

Market focus: (1) The Fed's overnight reverse repurchase usage exceeded US$486 billion, surpassing the previous record high of US$485.3 billion on May 27 and setting a new record high. (2) According to Mysteel, in May 2021, China's actual production of ferronickel was 36,800 tons, an increase of 2.81% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 21.99%. (3) According to Mysteel.com, by the end of May 2021, 15 mainstream steel mills in China had an inventory of 1,187,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.37% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.96%.

Spot analysis: On June 8, spot 1# electrolytic nickel was quoted at 130,500-132,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 131,550 yuan/ton, and a daily drop of 350 yuan/ton. Changjiang Nonferrous Metals reported that there were fewer shipments from holders. Following yesterday's downstream purchases, the market's trading activity dropped significantly. At present, merchants are performing on the sidelines, and spot transactions are not as good as yesterday.

Warehouse receipt inventory: On Tuesday, Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts totaled 6,868 tons, a daily decrease of 172 tons; on June 7, LME nickel inventory was 242004 tons, a daily decrease of 564 tons, a 15-day decline.

Main positions: The top 20 long positions of Shanghai Nickel’s main 2107 contract were 67430 hands, with a daily decrease of 3797 hands, a short position of 67,570 hands, a daily decrease of 4336 hands, a net short position of 140 hands, a daily decrease of 539 hands, both long and short positions, and a decrease in headroom.

Market research and judgment: The May non-agricultural data of the United States did not perform as expected, the Fed's urgency to adjust its monetary policy has decreased, and the Fed's use of reverse repurchase continues to grow, and the U.S. dollar index is under pressure. The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines continues to recover, the domestic nickel ore inventory has maintained an increase, and the tightness of raw materials has gradually improved. At present, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment is heating up, and the demand has declined. However, the profit of downstream stainless steel production has increased, and the output of the 300 series has increased. In addition, the consumption of new energy enterprises is considerable. The current domestic inventory is at a low level, and there is still support under the nickel price. Technically, the main force of Shanghai Nickel's 2107 contract daily MACD crosses, paying attention to the 40-day moving average support, and the market outlook is expected to be adjusted. Operationally, it is recommended to sell high and buy low in the range of 128,500-132,500 yuan/ton, and stop loss at 1,500 yuan/ton each.

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