SunSirs: Demand is Less than Expected, Chinese Cobalt Market is Slowly Rsing

Cobalt market picks up

In May, the domestic cobalt market fluctuated and rose, and the cobalt price bottomed out. As of May 31, the cobalt price was RMB 35,1000.00/ton, which was an increase of RMB 34,5000.00/ton from the beginning of the month (May 1), an increase of 1.74%. Cobalt prices bottomed out and the cobalt market rebounded.

Domestic cobalt market demand

According to data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, from January to April 2021, the overall domestic mobile phone market shipments reached 125 million units, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%. However, compared with the gains of 92.8%, 240.9%, and 65.9% in the previous three months, the overall domestic mobile phone shipments in April saw a year-on-year decline of up to 34.1%.

According to the latest data released by the China Automobile Association, in April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 216,000 and 206,000 respectively, an increase of 1.6 times and 1.8 times respectively year-on-year. In terms of power battery output, in April 2021, China’s three yuan Battery output is 6.7GWh, accounting for 51.9% of total power battery output, an increase of 134.3% year-on-year, and a month-on-month increase of 15.1%; from January to April, the cumulative output of ternary batteries was 24.5GWh, accounting for 53.6% of total power battery output, a cumulative increase of 185.8 %. my country's new energy vehicle production and sales have increased significantly, which is positive for the cobalt market. However, in April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles fell month-on-month, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles fell short of expectations. In terms of ternary batteries, the proportion of ternary batteries declined in April, and the growth of ternary battery production slowed down. Generally speaking, in terms of new energy vehicles and power batteries, demand in the cobalt market has risen, but the rise is less than expected. The rising momentum of the cobalt market is less than expected, and the rising momentum of the cobalt market has weakened.

According to customs statistics, in April, the output of mobile phones was 130 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%; the output of microcomputer equipment was 35.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%. From January to April, my country exported 71.35 million laptops, a year-on-year increase of 72.3%; exported 310 million mobile phones, a year-on-year increase of 30.8%. The output of electronic products has increased sharply, and exports have grown rapidly. The good performance of the electronic product industry has stimulated a surge in demand in the cobalt market, and the cobalt market has sufficient momentum for the market outlook.

Global cobalt market demand

According to the statistics agency Strategy Analytics’ global mobile phone shipment report for the first quarter of 2021, 340 million smartphones were shipped globally in the first quarter of 2021, an increase of 24% year-on-year, setting a new high since 2015. On May 23, CITIC Securities issued a research report predicting that, looking forward to the second quarter and the whole year of 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of smartphone shipments is expected to slow down, and the global smartphone shipment forecast for the whole year is lowered to 1.35 billion units. , A year-on-year increase of 5%; originally expected global smartphone shipments in 2021 will be 1.4 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The increase in mobile phone sales has stimulated the increase in demand in the cobalt market, but the expected decline in global mobile phone shipments may have a negative impact on the expected demand in the cobalt market, and the downward pressure on the cobalt market will increase.

Market summary

The new energy automobile industry and the mobile phone industry performed strongly in 21 years. The production and sales volume increased sharply in the first quarter, which stimulated the cobalt market to soar; Part of the downward trend, cobalt market demand fell short of expectations, dragged down by the cobalt market, cobalt prices began to fluctuate slightly in March; however, overall, cobalt market demand still has room to rise, and due to the impact of the epidemic, cobalt ore freight and mining costs Increasing, the cost of cobalt ore has risen, and the cobalt market has limited room for decline. In the future, the cost of cobalt market remains high, the room for cobalt prices to fall is limited, the demand for cobalt market is difficult to meet expectations, and the momentum for cobalt prices to rise is insufficient. Cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate slightly in the future.

Related listed companies: Huayou Cobalt (603799), Hanrui Cobalt (300618), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993).

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