SunSirs: Reappearance Of Soybean Meal Price Rise In October

On October 28, the soybean meal commodity index was 95.93, down 1.6 points from yesterday, down 31.42% from 139.88 (2012-09-04), the highest point in the cycle, and up 31.34% from 73.04, the lowest point on April 10, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

SunSirs: in October, soybean meal broke the downturn in September and ushered in a rising market. During the 11th Festival, it staged a rising market. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of domestic soybean meal was RMB 3046 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the average market price of 43% of domestic soybean meal was RMB 3196 yuan / ton, up 4.92%.

At the beginning of the month, USDA's quarterly grain inventory report was released by the U.S. Department of agriculture before the festival, with more reports. The main contract of American beans rose from 880 to 920 or so a week, or more than 4%. Driven by the market of foreign market futures, domestic soybean oil plants mainly stop for maintenance, and the price is relatively heavy. The main quotation of domestic main soybean meal manufacturers is back to 3100 yuan; the price is RMB 50-70 yuan / ton higher than that before the festival. As of October 10, 43% of domestic soybean meal market average price is RMB 3133 yuan / ton, and the price is nearly 3% higher.

In the middle of the month, soybean meal market is still at a high level. On the positive side: external weather worries, the output of American soybeans is down, and the growth rate is down. As of the week of October 20, the growth rate of American soybeans is 54%, that of the previous week is 54%, and that of the same period last year is 66%. In that week, the rate of soybean defoliation in the United States was 94%, 85% in the previous week, 98% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 97%. In that week, the soybean harvest rate in the United States was 46%, 26% in the previous week, 51% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 64%.

With the support of multiple bullies, soybean meal prices rose, with the weekly increase of main contracts close to 1%, spot prices rose, and the mainstream price exceeded RMB 3100 yuan / ton. In addition, some soybean oil plants are still in shutdown for maintenance, with low startup rate, tight supply of soybean meal, and sustained price growth, with the overall increase of nearly 5%.

At the end of the month, after the sharp rise of soybean meal, there was a callback, and the terminal demand recovered in succession. According to the latest data from the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, in September, the number of pigs in large-scale pig farms with an annual output of more than 5000 increased by 0.6% on a month on month basis, and the number of sows capable of breeding increased by 3.7% on a month on month basis. Soybean meal rose sharply in the week of the 21st, with the price increasing by more than 8% compared with the beginning of the month.

Under the influence of bad news and sharp drop in futures, on the 28th, the spot price of soybean meal fell in an all-round way. The main contract of soybean meal closed at RMB 2982 yuan / ton, and the price fell by RMB 64 yuan / ton. The spot price of soybean meal fell in an all-round way under the pressure of futures. The mainstream quotation was RMB 3180 yuan / ton, and the price fell by RMB 70 yuan / ton. Spot prices fell sharply. As of October 28, the average spot price of soybean meal continued to be RMB 3196 yuan / ton, up 4.92% from the beginning of the month.

SunSirs bean analyst believes that in the short term, the negative factors at the futures level are dominant, the price of soybean meal is weak in the future, or the weak will be mainly explored.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with marketing@sunsirs.com.