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SunSirs: High Price Shock In Sugar Price Season

October 28 2019 15:56:55     SunSirs (Eva)

1.Price Trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of white sugar fell slightly this week. The average price of the first-class white sugar at the beginning of the week was RMB 6043 yuan / ton, and the average price of the first-class white sugar at the weekend was RMB 6030 yuan / ton, down 0.22%.

2.Cause analysis

After the national day, the new sugar production work of domestic sugar factories from north to South has been carried out successively. It is expected that the supply peak will come in January next year in December, but it is difficult to hit the market in the short term. According to the estimation of sales volume in recent years, the total market demand from October to December is about 1.5 million tons. According to the above, when the maximum supply is more than 3 million tons and the supply exceeds the demand, it is more difficult for sugar price to rise.

In terms of policy, Guangxi sugar association may apply for extension of safeguard measures, which brings uncertainty to Zheng sugar. However, the market is expected to recover 50% of the quota by may 2020. If the cost of imported sugar is reduced, it will be significantly reduced.

International: increase the global sugar supply gap in 2019 / 20 to 5.17 million tons from the previous estimated 3.67 million tons. By the end of September 2019, in the 18 / 19 period, the total sugar production in China was 10.7604 million tons; the total sugar sales in China was 10.4063 million tons; the sugar sales rate was 96.71% (95.62% in the same period last year). In September 2019, China imported 420000 tons of sugar, a decrease of 50000 tons on a month on month basis, an increase of 230000 tons on a year-on-year basis.

3.Future Market Forecast

According to the white sugar analyst of SunSirs, the domestic sugar base is at a high level, and although the pressure of international sugar inventory is still being digested, the expectation of sugar production reduction in the world's major producing countries is strong, and Zheng sugar is expected to continue to show a strong trend in the short term.

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