SunSirs: Oils and Fats Rose and Fell Sharply, Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Plunged, Market for Agricultural Products in China was Volatile

The agricultural sideline index on March 2 was 1249 points, a decrease of 2.50% from the highest point in the cycle of 1281 points (2021-01-19), and an increase of 53.06% from the lowest point of 816 points on January 3, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to present)

Starting in March, driven by crude oil, the chemical, rubber and plastic industries collectively ushered in a surge. Compared with the boom in other industries, agricultural products have not caught a ride. Affected by terminal demand, the sector has opened up polarization. Driven by the sharp rise in crude oil, the market for oils and fats showed a strong performance, with raging gains and insufficient stamina. It rose sharply on March 1 and fell sharply on March 2. Soybean meal and rapeseed meal, which is a feed ingredient, has actually started a huge diving market.

According to SunSirs price monitoring, on March 1, 2021, the agricultural and sideline sector increased in the commodity price list on March 1, 2021. The top 3 commodities were soybean oil (2.29%), palm oil (1.87%), and vegetables. Seed oil (1.19%).

There are two commodities that have dropped from the previous month. The top two products are soybean meal (-3.14%) and rapeseed meal (-2.42%).

According to SunSirs price monitoring, on March 2, 2021, the agricultural and sideline sectors fell in the commodity price list on March 2, 2021. The top three products were palm oil (-3.88%), soybean meal (-2.30%), Eggs (-2.21%).

Long-short game, the oil sector rose and fell sharply

After the Spring Festival, crude oil soared and the U.S. extremely cold weather affected the supply shortage in many domestic industries. Many products triggered price hikes. As a raw material for biodiesel, soybean oil palm oil rose sharply, and rapeseed oil followed. On March 1, the oil futures market rose sharply, and the main futures contracts rose more than 100 yuan/ton. The spot price of soybean oil once rose to nearly 10,000 yuan, and the price of palm oil also exceeded 8,300 yuan/ton. The price of rapeseed oil exceeded 1,100 yuan/ton, hitting historical highs repeatedly, with an increase of more than 13% compared to the beginning of 2021. On March 2, as the price of oil and fat was already at a high level, the opening price of futures fell, and the price of oil and fat continued to adjust. Palm oil fell by nearly 4% in a single day, soybean oil fell by more than 1% in a single day, and rapeseed oil fell by nearly 2%.

Consumption off-season is coming, soybean meal and rapeseed meal have plunged

After the holiday, the large pigs in the terminal breeding industry are concentrated on slaughter, the aquatic product industry has not yet recovered, and the feed industry has begun to enter the off-season of consumption. Soybean meal and rapeseed meal were suppressed by demand, and the sharp rise of US soybeans did not prevent the decline of soybean meal. After the short-term rise in soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the market for soybean meal and rapeseed meal began to dive sharply, in sharp contrast with the surge in oils. Since March, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures prices have fallen sharply. Soybean meal spot prices have fallen for two consecutive days. Soybean meal has fallen by more than 5%, and rapeseed meal has fallen by nearly 4%.

SunSirs agricultural product analysts believe that after the sharp rise in fats and oils, the market for double meal has plunged, and the entire agricultural product industry has performed poorly. As pig prices begin to pick up, terminal feed demand has also begun to recover. It is expected that the agricultural product industry will continue to be volatile in the future. The feed raw material market will rebound one after another, and the continuously high oil market will continue to callback. In the short term, the agricultural product industry will remain polarized with strong oscillations. 

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