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SunSirs: Positive Boost, China's Rapeseed Meal Prices Fluctuate

January 15 2021 08:21:56     SunSirs (Linda)

1. Rapeseed meal market price trend

According to SunSir monitoring, the average price of rapeseed meal in East China was 2,856 yuan/ton on January 13, and the average price was 2,690 yuan/ton on January 1, up 6.2%.

2. Market Analysis

The price of rapeseed meal increased by 6.2% from January 1 to January 13. On January 13, the price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was RMB 2,920/ton, the price in Guangdong and Guangxi was RMB 3040-3060/ton, and the price in Jiangsu was RMB 2,950/ton. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report lowered the end-of-term inventory and output forecasts of U.S. soybeans and the output expectations of Argentina. U.S. soybean prices maintained a strong rise, boosting domestic meal prices and supporting rapeseed meal prices. On January 13, as of the close, the rapeseed meal 2105 contract was closed to the daily limit and closed at 3154 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.03%; soybean meal closed at 3775 yuan/ton with a 4.11% increase.

According to data, as of the week of January 8, rapeseed meal stocks in Guangdong, Guangdong and Fujian increased to 46,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from 34,000 tons last week, an increase of 35.29%. Entering the winter, aquaculture is in the off-season, and the demand for rapeseed meal is weak, which limits the rising room for rapeseed meal. Affected by restrictions on imported rapeseed, domestic rapeseed meal stocks are at a low level in recent years.

According to Canadian data, the Canadian rapeseed output in 2020 decreased by 4.5% from the previous year to 18.72 million tons. The output declined and the price of Canadian rapeseed rose. Due to the high cost of adding rapeseed, my country switched to importing rapeseed from Russia. Seeds to meet domestic demand.

According to SunSirs data monitoring, starting from mid-December 2020, soybean meal prices began to bottom out and the market was heating up. After New Year's Day, the price of soybean meal continued to expand and the market soared. On December 15, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,142 yuan/ton, and on January 12, the average price of soybean meal was 3,972 yuan/ton, and the overall price rose by 26.33%.

3. Outlook

U.S. soybeans rose sharply, which is positive for the rapeseed meal market. SunSirs rapeseed meal analysts predict that rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate mainly.

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