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Some Long Funds Lighten up, and Soybean Meal Market Fluctuates at High Levels

January 06 2021 09:53:59     Zhaojin Futures (Linda)

Futures: Soybean meal 2105 fluctuated on Tuesday, closing at 3483 (flat), with a total of more than 10,000 Masukura lots, and trading volume increased. The top 20 capital flows: Long positions individually concentrated to lighten their positions, and the amount of positions held was greatly reduced, and the concentration of chips was greatly reduced; short positions increased and decreased and adjusted positions, and the amount of positions increased slightly, and the concentration increased. The weather speculates the strong new high of US soybeans, which drives the strong soybean meal. Pay attention to the adjustment of the South American soybean supply and demand report in January; domestic hog repair momentum is good, and demand supports the bottom of soybean meal. Affected by the external market, the market opened lower in early trading, and individual long funds sharply reduced their positions. The price fluctuations rebounded around 3,500. Under pressure, short-term or continued high fluctuations. Pay attention to the sharp rise and lighten up positions. Pay attention to external market trends, key funds sentiment and market expectations changes.

Strategic analysis: It is currently a window of weather speculation. The South American soybean production cut has affected the rise of US soybeans. Domestic imports of US soybeans continue to grow. Supply and demand, weather and market sentiment factors alternately affect the market. On the supply side, China continues to actively purchase U.S. soybeans, with high arrivals in Hong Kong, and there is uncertainty in South American soybean production. In terms of demand, the spot transactions and inventories of soybean meal fell last week, the slaughter of live pigs ushered in a peak, the recovery of the large-scale pig breeding cycle was confirmed, and the demand for soybean meal was stimulated in the medium and long term. Operational reference: the medium and long-term bullish trend remains unchanged, and the important support area for market callbacks can be placed in the medium and long-term long-term long-term orders. After a sharp increase, the position can be reduced or short-term hedged.

Market strategy: Soybean meal 2105 may continue to fluctuate in the short term, pay attention to lighten up after a sharp rise, and pay attention to the pressure situation near 3500 and changes in capital initiative. Short-term operation: close the position and wait and see. If the market goes down and stabilizes in the 3420-3450 area, you can consider trying more. If the market is under pressure near and above 3510, you can consider reducing more and more. Swing operation: The low midline continues to hold 15% more capital positions or drops near 3400 and below the midline multi-order layout. Key short-term positions: 3460, 3510.

Market news: According to customs data, China imported 9.586 million tons of soybeans in November; the total annual soybean imports were 92.803 million tons, an increase of 17.5% year-on-year. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the data from fixed-point monitoring, the stock of reproductive sows in the country exceeded 41 million and the stock of live pigs exceeded 400 million at the end of November, and the pig production capacity has recovered to more than 90% of the end of 2017. U.S. soybean exports to China have continued to grow, and their proportion has returned to the level of normal years. The sales progress is nearing completion and the profit of China's imports of U.S. soybeans has slowed down. Development and Reform Commission: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a central budget to invest 4.55 billion yuan to strengthen support for the environmental management of livestock and poultry farms and other infrastructure construction, support the accelerated recovery of live pig production, and promote sustainable agricultural development. The profit of imported soybean crushing fell month-on-month, but there was still profit. China has stepped up its purchase of US soybeans. The forecast volume of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter has been revised up from the previous month. US soybeans crushed 4,926,500 tons in November, a record high over the same period in history, -5% month-on-month and +10% year-on-year.

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