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SunSirs: Supply is Loose, China's Soybean Meal Rebounds Weakly

November 26 2020 12:12:48     SunSirs (Linda)

According to SunSirs data monitoring, in November the soybean meal market was intertwined with longs and shorts, and the market fluctuated. After the sharp rise at the beginning of the month, it ushered in high diving. The price fell all the way, and the market rebounded again in the middle of the month. Come callback. As of November 24, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,277 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.76% from the beginning of November.

According to the monthly increase and decrease of soybean meal from 2029 to October 2020, it can be seen that the price of soybean meal in 2019 has fallen more and less, with the highest increase of 17.53%. Except for April, May, August, and October, which increased in the four months, the rest are mainly falling. Soybean meal fell across the board in November and December.

In the first ten months of 2020, soybean meal prices have risen and fallen the same, falling for 5 months and rising for 5 months, with the largest decline of 11.12% and the largest increase of 15.12%. The performance in the first half of the year was relatively average. Except for the increase of more than 15% in March, the other months were in decline, or the increase was less than 2%. In the second half of the year, soybean meal performed relatively well. In July, soybean meal prices rose by more than 6%. In September, soybean meal ushered in the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" market. In September, soybean meal rose by nearly 5 points, and October soybean meal increased by more than 5 points. So far in November, soybean meal prices are in a downward trend. Near the end of the month, soybean meal is still weak in rebound.

Loose supply, weak rebound of soybean meal

In early November, soybean meal rose by 1.89%, supported by multiple factors. Due to the weakening of terminal feed demand, the quantity of imported soybeans as raw materials is still at a high level, maintaining the top line of 8.69 million tons, and the number of imported soybeans to Hong Kong continues to increase. Beginning on the 5th, the market ushered in an oscillating decline, and the price dropped to 3,200 yuan/ton, a drop of more than 4%.

Beginning on the 16th, US soybean exports were strong. After the continuous decline of soybean meal, it ushered in a rebound. The price continued to fluctuate and rise, and the price returned to the 3300 yuan mark, an increase of more than 2.6%. Since the beginning of this week, due to the loose supply of imported soybeans, soybean meal stocks have rebounded to 870,000 tons, increasing by more than 3% on a week-on-week basis. The negative pressure has caused soybean meal, which had a rebounding trend, to return to the downward channel.

SunSirs agricultural product analysts believe that the supply of imported soybeans is still loose, and terminal soybean meal demand is flat, and soybean meal prices are likely to continue to fall in the short term.

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